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Yes, Trump Can Win
Real Clear Politics ^ | May 31, 2016 | Sean Trende

Posted on 05/31/2016 6:44:09 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster

Yes, Trump Can Win

By Sean Trende

May 31, 2016

Throughout this primary season, I’ve had an ongoing fight with a co-worker about whether Donald Trump could win the general election. I was pretty firmly in the “if the economy collapses, maybe, but he is much more likely to drag the entire Republican field down with him” camp.

To resolve this, my co-worker invited me to set up some benchmarks: what we would have to see in order to believe that Trump really could win the election – not just that he had some sort of outside shot in a perfect storm, but that he had a legitimate, realistic chance of winning.

To cover my bases, I tried to set benchmarks that I thought would be really difficult for Trump to meet: He would have to pull within five points of Hillary Clinton in the RCP Average within a month of wrapping up the GOP race (this was back when he was down by 10), and then he would have to prove that he could lead her in a polling average (rather than in the occasional outlying poll) by the end of the Republican convention.

So, here we are. Last week, Trump was up by 0.2 percent in the RCP Average, meeting both of my goalposts two months ahead of schedule. I still believe that he is the underdog, but I have to concede that he can win. I would put his chances more around 30 percent today. If at some point he establishes a durable lead (he returned to trailing Clinton Friday morning), or if he can push his average up into the high forties, I will revise things accordingly.

Why might this continue? Here are a five reasons:

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016issues; 2016swingvote; clinton; election2016; hillary2016; trump; trumpvictory

1 posted on 05/31/2016 6:44:09 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster
King Robbo ‏@realkingrobbo 2 hours ago

TAKE ME IN OH TENDER WOMAN, TAKE ME IN FOR HEAVEN'S SAKE


2 posted on 05/31/2016 6:47:29 AM PDT by Byron_the_Aussie (We cannot allow Hillary Clinton to become the next Angela Merkel)
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To: Byron_the_Aussie

I seem to miss the connection that your post has to do with this post?


3 posted on 05/31/2016 6:55:07 AM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
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To: Robert DeLong
It's right in the magazine subtitle. "Asians" instead of "muslims". Americans don't want the USA subjugated to these muslim sub-humans as Great Britain has become.

The two greatest threats to the USA are our open borders and pandering to the muslim invaders who are a threat to all humans. Yet the media and commie politicians continue to push these PC memes.

4 posted on 05/31/2016 7:03:00 AM PDT by meadsjn
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To: meadsjn

“Asian” is the term that the British use to describe South Asians (i.e. Indians, Pakistanis, etc.) It seems odd to us Americans, because we use “Asian” to describe East Asians (Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, etc.)


5 posted on 05/31/2016 7:12:24 AM PDT by bus man (Loose Lips Sink Ships)
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To: Robert DeLong

Acknowledging your shortcomings is the first step on the road to enlightenment. Stay focused on your progress and I will hand you water bottles along the marathon route, Byron


6 posted on 05/31/2016 7:14:09 AM PDT by Byron_the_Aussie (We cannot allow Hillary Clinton to become the next Angela Merkel)
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To: meadsjn
Perfect. 'Meadsjn', am I right in thinking that was Master Po's nickname at the Shaolin Monastery? Here's the background:

Donald Trump Reads The Snake Lyric At Campaign Rally Referring To Immigration | Jan.12th 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu6_2hFTw74

7 posted on 05/31/2016 7:24:00 AM PDT by Byron_the_Aussie (We cannot allow Hillary Clinton to become the next Angela Merkel)
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To: Robert DeLong

Previous reply was just plain rude. Sincere apologies, I’m off to bed.


8 posted on 05/31/2016 7:51:35 AM PDT by Byron_the_Aussie (We cannot allow Hillary Clinton to become the next Angela Merkel)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Duh! The author, Sean Trende, should not become a trend analyst. He was far too slow to recognize this trend.
9 posted on 05/31/2016 8:12:03 AM PDT by Albion Wilde (In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. --George Orwell)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

“Yes trump CAN win?” Gee thanks Einstein, but you’re a day late and a dollar short.


10 posted on 05/31/2016 10:53:43 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: meadsjn; Byron_the_Aussie
The original article has no mention of Muslims being involved at all, and the ring apparently was run by Asians, not Muslims. So is that cover inaccurate in providing pictures of Muslims? Were the Muslims, johns that were arrested?

No, sorry Byron, but your post left too much to the imagination. I assumed that you were implying that Trump would never allow this kind of thing to go on because he doesn't allow the PC crowd to get to him, and all I was looking for was confirmation that it was indeed your intention for posting the cover of the Daily Mirror for Aug 27, 2014, to make that point. However, the press still will be the ones reporting, and I doubt they will abandon their stupidity just because Trump is elected. They will still be as PC as ever, it will just have less affect, hopefully.

As for your apology, accepted. Wasn't really necessary though. I'm thick skinned. Which is a good thing, because I am not into running for any reason.

11 posted on 05/31/2016 1:27:21 PM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
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To: Robert DeLong
The original article has no mention of Muslims being involved at all, and the ring apparently was run by Asians, not Muslims. So is that cover inaccurate in providing pictures of Muslims? Were the Muslims, johns that were arrested?

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic, or if you are really as obtuse or as evil as you pretend to be.

These sex crimes in the UK have been for years perpetrated by muslims. The media describe them as "Asian", whether from Pakistan, or from as far west as Morocco. They have all been muslims, carrying out their rape jihad. The same has been happening throughout Europe, aided and abetted by the commie socialists, who just hate white people for no particular reason.

Islam is just pure, unadulterated evil. Socialists who excuse, sympathize with, or facilitate the evils of islam upon human civilization are just as much pure, unadulterated evil as are the muslims.

12 posted on 05/31/2016 2:17:14 PM PDT by meadsjn
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To: meadsjn
if you are really as obtuse or as evil as you pretend to be

Whatever. At least I am not like you, and that is a good thing in my book. I concern myself very little with what the British do, they are irrelevant anymore, due to their own making.

13 posted on 05/31/2016 2:24:05 PM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
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