Replies

Rebelbase: "Any thoughts on how the war would have preceded had the carrier fleet been in Pearl Harbor and the japs had sunk them all?"

chimera: "...we'd have lost Midway for sure if the IJN continued on their plans to take it.
Then HI would be open for invasion if they wanted to go that far, which I'm guessing they would if we did not sue for peace before that..."

No, people misunderstand the situation...

First of all, we need to remember that of the eight old battle-wagons "sunk" at Pearl Harbor, only two were total losses, and two were soon repaired, back in the fight in time for the Battle of Midway, June 1942.
The other four rejoined the fleet in following months & years.

So let us imagine that one, or both, of the two carriers based at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 was caught in port and also "sunk".
How long would it have taken to repair & return them to the fight?
Well, obviously there's no way to say for sure, but perhaps on average we might suppose one of them could be ready for the Battle of Midway in June 1942.

Now also remember than on December 7, 1942 the US had seven fleet-carriers and one escort-carrier: Lexington & Enterprise at Pearl, Saratoga in San Diego, Yorktown, Hornet, Wasp, Ranger & Long Island in the Atlantic.
All but Ranger & Long Island were soon transferred to the Pacific, giving us six there.
Of them four were soon sunk -- Lexington (May '42), Yorktown (June '42), Wasp (September '42) & Hornet (October '42).

(Btw, CV-1, the obsolescent Langley, was also sunk by Japanese dive bombers in early 1942, but is not usually included in counts of early war carriers.)

So, suppose on net, one carrier was sunk at Pearl Harbor and not ready for Midway, let's say the Lexington -- what would have happened?
Well, Lexington was already sunk by Midway, so would not have effected the three US carriers available for that battle.
Yes, it may have changed the results of Corral Sea, or may have simply moved up the date for Wasp's arrival in the Pacific from June 1942 to say, March, along with Hornet.
Alternatively, Ranger or Long Island might be considered for Pacific duty.

Point is: while US naval resources were severely limited throughout 1942, there were still reserves to be called on, if needed.

Kind of interesting to speculate. I'm just an armchair tactician, so I don't know, but say Enterprise had been lost at Pearl Harbor. Lexington then went on to Coral Sea and sunk. Yorktown was patched up and ready with Hornet. Would Halsey have risked going up against Yamamoto with only two carriers? Saratoga was at San Diego undergoing repairs and as it turned out was not ready until after Midway was fought. Maybe they could have sped up repairs, I don't know. A lot of Saratoga’s air group was transferred to Yorktown, whose air group was partially depleted. Wasp was ordered transferred by did not reach station until after Midway was over. Maybe they could have made it sooner, but her work in the Atlantic would have been curtailed. Losing one or two carriers at Pearl Harbor might have made it an even dicer situation, more so than it already was.