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I couldn't find more recent results for 2012 and 2014, but I would expect similar results: In 2012, there were probably more Democrats, and in 2014 it was probably about even.

I found 2012: As expected, it was D+6: 38/32/29 -- almost exactly the same as 2008.

And in 2014, it was R+1: 35/36/28 -- in exit polls conducted for House races.

So, the question remains: given the dynamics of voter enthusiasm, is oversampling that exceeds the difference observed in Obama's first election the correct value to use for this election?

I found this resource for Presidental election:

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/presidential-elections/2012-presidential-election/

On the right side, you can choose Presidential elections back to 1976. Click on the link labelled {year} Group Voting, and then scroll to the bottom. You'll find a category for Party Identification, and the first column of numbers is the total for that party.

An interesting piece of data: in 1984 it was D+3: 38/35/26, but Reagan nearly swept the Electoral College. It was also D+3 in 2000, when it came down to one state (Florida) in the Electoral College.

No, I am talking about he presidential election. There was no way there were more republicans than democrats in 2012. In fact, even more blacks came out to vote in 2012 than in 2008. Blacks and Hispanics had record turnout and the republican vote was depressed.

There were more democrats than republicans voting in 2012 - that is why Obama won, Sherlock.

In fact, the percent of republican representatives in the House exceeded their vote by a fairly wide margin, which is why the democrats complained about republican gerrymandering, again.

Another point to make, is that today's elections are not the same as when Reagan was president. There were a lot of voters who registered as democrats their whole lives but voted for Reagan. Many of those voters are dead or they switched or identify as republicans now.

There is more straight ticket voting now than there has been in two generations. That is why the republicans were panicking about losing both the house and senate just a few weeks ago since so many voters are straight ticket voters now. Since the polls are much better now, republicans should still keep the house, but keeping the senate is going to be a bit iffy.