This is the essence of one possible formula:
- Sum A: The annual amount of any “assistance” funds the U.S. government may pay to Mexico for any reason.
- Sum B: A reasonably calculated annual amount the U.S. currently incurs to police its southern border and waters. It seems clear there is no expectation this amount will decline in the near term.
The total of A and B would be for Mexico’s account. Deductions from that sum would consist of:
- The annual cost for the U.S. to assure Mexico was providing reasonably effective control of its border. This would include the cost of mounted patrols, Coast Guard patrols, the cost of citizen assistance, etc. It is intended this amount would be less than Sum B above and would at the first level reflect the cost (in U.S. terms) of Mexico’s efforts.
- A “bounty” amount for each illegal alien apprehended by state or federal agencies that reflects “handling” costs and the cost of returning same to Mexico (regardless of nationality).
- Costs incurred by the U.S. to provide new welfare (medical, etc.) to illegal aliens present in the U.S after a certain date.
It may be that Trump was correct when he stated that Mexico would pay for “the wall”.
With $20 billion plus being sent back to Mexico annually by Mexicans working in the US, it would take a lot of disincentives to get them to do any border enforcement from their side. And with all the corruption and infiltration of the drug cartels into Mexican law enforcement and government, I don’t know that there is any formula that would cause them to prevent their citizens from entering the US illegally.
Illegal drugs are a major Mexican job creator and export to the US. Probably also provides several billion per year in income.
There would have to be some dramatic reforms in Mexico.
We don't provide any significant USG aid to Mexico, which is a fairly wealthy country compared to the rest of the world. It has a $2.2 trillion GDP economy, the 12th largest in the world. What is significant is the $23 billion a year that is sent from Mexicans in the US to Mexico. It is about equal to Mexico's revenue from oil sales.
- Sum B: A reasonably calculated annual amount the U.S. currently incurs to police its southern border and waters. It seems clear there is no expectation this amount will decline in the near term.
No doubt billions, but less than $10 billion a year. This does not include the billions spent on the War on Drugs, the human costs of drugs on our people, the millions of Americans who have been victims of criminal alien crime including tens of thousands who have been murdered.
We are Mexico's biggest trading partner. 80% of Mexico's exports go to the US (345 billion annually) and 48% of their imports come from the US, about $215 billion a year. We have lots of leverage in trade and remittances,
We can easily have Mexico pay for the costs of the wall if we have the political will to do so.