I’ve thought for quite a while that Trump would probably win FL, OH, and, yes, PA. What I’m actually more curious about now are VA, CO, NV, and MI.
I think Michigan is going to be harder than Pennsylvania for Trump, but I think he has a real shot there with his economic message. I’m afraid about Virginia because of the D.C. suburbs and voting felons, but he’s going to get huge bipartisan turnout in Southwest, Southside, and the whiter military/vet heavy areas of the Tidewater. (Wouldn’t it be perverse if the Republican nominee won PA, but not VA?) I hope the higher new registrations among anti-Trump Hispanics that are apparently taking place in NV and CO are not enough to lose him those states. Trump still hasn’t been to CO even once; I hope he gets out there soon.
I am also curious as to whether Trump will have a real shot at NH (the latest poll has him down 5%, which is not too bad), IA, WI (is he still not “nice” enough for IA and WI?), or even NJ (which is a much more realistic chance for him than NY). I would love to see him play in OR and NM but those are probably a bridge too far (because of hard-left pockets and demographic changes, respectively). From what the media whores have been saying, AZ and GA are probably the only two red states from 2012 Trump will have to defend. I doubt he’ll have any real problem with those.
I’m skeptical of the AZ and GA polls. GA—unknown pollster and here are the crosstabs:
Not enough info there to figure out what the heck they did.
Same thing with the AZ poll. Never heard of Behavior Research, but here are the crosstabs. Again, not enough info to figure out their assumptions:
http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf
I’m always suspicious of unknown polling firms releasing polls without releasing full crosstabs. Therein lies much room for mischief.