I agree with your assessment.
I’m not trying to be a downer either, but those claiming it will be a slam dunk for Trump aren’t being realistic. Demographics alone make it all but impossible for a GOP landslide win.
Trump can beat Hillary, but she is a strong favorite. I hate it, but she is.
If he is able to knock her off, I think it will be by the slimmest of margins. Here’s hoping.
but she is a strong favorite....According to the Media (which she owns) only.
It’s not so bad when you look at it coming from another planet. Here’s what you see:
12% Black Vote: The Dems do whatever they need to lock up 90% of that vote, and most of that is taken care of by simply convincing blacks that Republicans are racist - so end of story.
12% Hispanic Vote: While Hispanics are now significantly more numerous than blacks, their voting percentages are about the same. However, most Hispanics in this country live in states that don’t affect the presidential outcome (i.e., they are givens to one party or the other)...which are California and New York (and Illinois, to a lesser extent). The only states that they really matter in are Florida and Colorado (something like 7% of the total Electoral Votes). And they are a wild card, as many have voted and likely will continue to vote Republican, as the legal ones are not so hot on open borders either.
6% Others: Who knows, but put them in the Democrat camp. The Republicans still haven’t found anyone that speaks “Asian” (as they see it). No one seems to respond to their ads calling for an “Asian Language Speaker” to address those communities, so the Dems have it all to themselves.
The Rest: Add up the above, and you get 30%. The other 70% are WHITES, and except for some fringe groups (such as gays), both parties have told whites they can go to hell as far as their issues are concerned. The Dems have gotten a lot of them simply because if neither party gives a damn about you, then you go to the one that might give you more crumbs (handouts).
But things are different now. Trump does give them something to vote for - jobs and country. That is why the Dems are scared like hell of him. The Dems know that all they can provide to whites is lip service (since things like quotas are zero sum...you will have losers, all white, regarding quotas). Similar for Open Borders, as the number of well-paying jobs is limited - if we have Open Borders, they move overseas or lower paid immigrants take them here. If we have secure borders, whites can get them, and with good pay.
In 2014 whites in the South voted between 75% (Texas) and 84% (Georgia) Republican. Whites are as much of an identity group as blacks are now, at least in the South, which means that ANY CANDIDATE that actually targets them can get huge, insurmountable, numbers, considering that they’re also 70% of the electorate. Hispanics and Blacks, for a Republican who targets whites, will not decide the election outcome for this cycle, and probably several more. But they will help with the margin of victory.
So, barring a screw-up by Trump, he’s looking at 350 Electoral Votes, easily.