Posted on 05/01/2016 10:29:39 AM PDT by SamAdams76
As of today (May 1), Donald Trump has won 27 of the 38 state contests to date for the Republican nomination. For purposes of this post, I'm not including U.S. territories. States only.
When you filter just for primaries however, where the people actually get to vote, Trump has won 24 of the 28 primaries held so far. In terms of primaries, Cruz has won Texas, Oklahoma, Idaho and Wisconsin.
Trump has won all the rest. Including a complete sweep of the Deep South and the Northeast (with the exception of caucus state Maine).
East of the Mississippi, Cruz has only won in Wisconsin (primary) and Maine (caucus). Only three states east of the Mississippi remain (Indiana, West Virginia and New Jersey). Trump is expected to sweep all three of these states easily.
As of today, the delegate count for Trump stands between 996 and 1,004. So I will average it to 1,000 and project the remaining contests:
May 3 - Indiana (57). Trump +15 in this morning's WSJ poll. I project Trump winning 51 of 57 and give Cruz two CDs. Trump 1,050
May 10 - Nebraska (36); West Virginia (34). Both states winner-take-all. Trump will win WV by a huge margin. I will still keep Nebraska for Cruz though Trump may surprise there. So give Trump 34 for the night. Trump 1,084.
May 17 - Oregon (28). Proportional. Recent polls have Trump up 20+ in Oregon. I project a Trump win and conservatively give him 19 of the 28. Trump 1,103
May 24 - Washington (44). Proportional. I haven't seen any recent polls here. But I'm thinking an Oregon victory gives him a boost there. But I'll play this conservatively and will only give Trump half (22). Trump 1,125
Now comes the grand finale of June 7th. The final 303 delegates will be at stake. At this point, Trump should be no worse than 112 delegates away from the 1,237 majority he needs to win on first ballot. This means Trump would only need to win 37% of the remaining 303. Here's how I think this plays out:
New Jersey (51). Winner take all. No brainer. Trump gets all 51. Trump 1,176.
South Dakota (29). Winner take all. Let's be generous and give this to Cruz. Trump 1,176
Montana (27). Winner take all. Ditto. Let's stay conservative and assume these go to Cruz. Trump, 1,176
New Mexico (24). Proportional. I think Trump wins this state outright but let's stay conservative and assume that Trump gets half (12). Trump 1,186
This leaves California with its mother lode of 172 delegates. At this point, and remember we've been conservative so far, Trump will need just 51 of these 172 to reach the 1,237.
Recent polls have Trump 20+ in California. I say it's a very safe bet, and probably very conservative, to say that Trump pulls 100 of these delegates. Trump 1,286
I predict that Trump goes over the top on June 7th and as California results will be the last to come in, that it is California that puts Trump over the top - and easily.
If Trump wins Indiana by a large margin this Tuesday, any hope of a contested convention flickers out and we may see the aforementioned "Cruz" states flip over to Trump as everybody starts to get on the Trump bandwagon.
If Kasich was to drop out of the race before the convention, the 66 delegates in Ohio will also go to Trump according to state rules that mandate delegates can only cast first ballot votes for an active candidate. I haven't been able to confirm that 100% but I've seen it mentioned several times and nobody has been able to refute it.
There is a reasonable chance that Trump's delegate total may exceed 1,400+ at convention time. Worse case, Trump is around 1,300.
There will be no second ballot. Time to focus on the General election and let's make mincemeat of Shrillary Clinton.
...and how many of those states where Trump has “won” delegates will the Republicans win in the fall? He’s winning his delegates in blue states. Bummer!
Roger Stone says Trump wins Indiana BUT GoPee gives him ONE delegate :(( Roger Stone @RogerJStoneJr · 15h15 hours ago
.@realDonaldTrump will WIN Indiana but GOP bosses give him ONE delegate of 27 http://StopTheSteal.com
---------------------------
With this stuff going on --- are we looking for Paul Manafort to be a magician ??
Cruz: so I have a chance?
“where the people actually get to vote”
Ah yes, there’s that. I happen to live in THE worst state, Colorado for a “primary” process that’s designed to disenfranchise as many voters as possible.
Fortunately, the Trump Effect exposed what a corrupt process that is here, and the national and state hue and outcry has caused the cock-a-roaches in our state legislature to hastily work on legislation to switch us back to an actual primary.
It SHOULD be a bi-partisan bill, but the fool GOP is opposing it in its current form because it allows unaffiliated voters to temporarily declare for one party or the other solely for the purpose of voting in a primary. Unaffiliated is THE largest group of registered voters in Colorado, so heaven forbid the GOP ACTUALLY expands their “big” tent.
Nonetheless, we Colorado voters thank Donald Trump (AND Bernie Sanders too) who’ve exposed how corrupt the current system is, and who’ve energized the voters to raise hell with our state legislatures and party officials.
The party selects three and the remaining 17 are "bonus" delegates whatever the hell that means. However all of them are required to go with the winner of the state on the first ballot. So if Trump wins 7 of 9 CDs, he'll have 51 of the 57 delegates on the first ballot.
I have no idea what Roger Stone is blathering about.
I assume Manafort has a handle on it.
He’s winning his delegates in blue states. Bummer!
Didn’t Cruz win Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, when was the last time any of these went republican?
Trump has won SC, NC, GA, AL, AR, MO, LA, MS, TN, AZ, FL, KY, VA, NV, all of which are either blue or purple. Trump will most likely win IN, NE, WV, SD as well because he has the momentum, and fewer and fewer people are going to waste their vote on someone who can’t win.
I think it’s pretty much over.
It’s time for people like me to accept it. I’ve worked for every Republican candidate on election day since Reagan. This will be my toughest challenge as I would never believed I would vote for someone as vulgar as Trump, but if it’s him or Hillary, I have to try to swallow my standards and get to work.
On the other hand, Trump has some advantages. The last Republican convention was a disaster. Chris Christie’s keynote address was the worst I had ever heard and then there was Clint Eastwood. I’m hoping Trump will put on a show that no other Republican is capable of.
Trump also has an amazing ability to brand things successfully. You ever watching tv and you notice yourself humming a song from a commercial a half hour earlier? Trump has that amazing ability. Listen to his supporters and they will repeat his slogans over and over. That’s an amazing talent and I can’t think of any other candidate who’s had that same ability.
Of course he has a long list of weaknesses too, but the time for that is past. It’s time to hope for the best.
Bush won Iowa and Colorado.
How did Ted Cruz fare in states that Republicans most likely need to win the White House like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina? Yeah, he didn’t win any of them, did he?
Unfortunately Trump comes across as vulgar to a lot of people. I hope that Trump is able to turn that perception around as we move into the general campaign as right now he's leaving a lot of Independents and Reagan-Democrat votes on the table.
Having been a Trump supporter since the summer I've gotten to know quite a bit about the man and I think that in real life, he's a very competent and driven individual who sets high standards for himself and others.
Early in my career, I had a manager who was very similar to Trump. He dressed like a million dollars, held his people to high standards and would never let anybody rest on their laurels. In fact, he was rougher on his high achievers than those who were mediocre. For the latter, he treated them with such indifference and contempt that they either got the message and moved on or they decided to up their game. He would ridicule publicly others who he felt were slackers or not achieving to their potential. In today's environment, his management style would probably not cut mustard with our HR department.
I hated working for that man at first! Nothing was ever good enough. And I worked hard and gave it my all. I got really pushed out of my comfort zone and as a result, I started realizing that I was capable of much more than I had been contributing. As I began to work closer with this man, I realized that he was actually a very personable guy who truly wanted his people to be successful. But he realized that most people needed a push to realize their full potential and that being a "nice guy" wasn't going to get it done.
Eventually I worked myself into his "circle of acceptance" and as a result was given even more challenging assignments and pushed even harder. Today I am at the VP level and run technical operations for the entire New York market - the largest market in my company. I do not believe I would be where I am today if not for having been "mentored" by that rather demanding and "vulgar" man!
For all his warts, Trump might be the medicine we need.
Exactly, he couldn't even beat Republicans in those states. In several, he came in third. Among Republicans.
How's he have a chance in hell to beat a Democrat?
Answer: he doesn't.
The guy is an incredibly weak candidate, and repulsive to boot. It amazes me that he has ANY supporters.
Nice detail, but irrelevant. Trump has a huge advantage on committed delegates, which is how this is decided. I don’t care about popular vote now, not any more than I cared with Bush v. Gore. Trump is very likely to be the nominee under the rules, and that is what matters.
In November, what will matter is whether Trump carries any of the liberal or swing states. We do not yet have any idea how he will do against Hillary in those states, and we have no statistical or polling data that even allows a guess. What will matter is the political campaign. How many from FR will be working the phones and other efforts for Trump in those key states once he is nominated?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.