[longtermmemmory]

would someone explain why fivethirtyeight.com still has cruz winning Indiana?

[Political Junkie Too]

538 is showing two linked polls: a "polls only" poll, and a "polls plus" poll. The polls plus poll tries to add the effects of previous results, endorsements, previous poll company accuracy, etc. 538 says that the polls plus method is right 57% of the time, and the polls only poll is rit 43% of the time.

The polls plus poll shows Cruz winning 65-35, and the polls only poll show Trump winning 71-29.

Beyond this, I can't say how accurate the shift from such a wide margin polls only result really is. That's a very wide margin to overturn by 538's special sauce.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

BTW, fivethirtyeight.com has completely reversed itself from Friday.

Nate Silver now has Trump with 97% chance of winning Indiana with polls only, and an 83% chance with polls plus.

-PJ