Formerly from CA, now in the Midwest.
I would point you to the head to head polling Reagan/Carter at the same point in time in 1980. They would say the same thing - Reagan gets beaten badly by Carter.
What Hillary/Trump polls say in April will not be what they say in October and November.
As I pointed out earlier in my previous post, the country has changed MASSIVELY since the 1980s. The Democrats already have built-in advantages thanks to massive demographic changes in this country. Trump will help drive up the Democrat vote this November with his incendiary rhetoric, crude language, insults, and polarizing campaign style. All the polls show this.
That is the most specious argument Trump supporters make. I was active in that campaign as a volunteer. Reagan was never as personally unpopular as Trump is. In the spring of 1980, Carter was benefiting from a "rally round the flag" effect stemming from the Iranian hostage crisis. But as the year wore on, and Carter showed himself to be ineffective in dealing with that crisis, as well as the issues of inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, high gas prices, etc., that effect wore off.
There is no correlation between that campaign and this one. People know Hillary is a liar, is a leftist, is incompetent - and they still prefer her to Trump by double digits. That lead is not because she is getting the benefit of people rallying to her side over some international crisis - people don't like her and don't trust her. But they still like her and trust her more than they do Trump.