95 of 2,472 delegates
(95 bound)
What you need to know about New York
1) New York is a modified winner-takes-all-state that requires a candidate to get a majority of the vote (50%+1) to take all of the delegates from either the statewide delegation (14 delegates) or a Congressional District (3 delegates in each of 27 of NY’s districts).
2) If Trump fails to get to 50%+1 statewide, the 14 statewide delegates will be apportioned proportionally between Trump and any candidate that gets 20% or more of the state vote. Ted Cruz is below 20% statewide in a lot of polls.
3) If Trump fails to get to 50%+1 in any Congressional District, Trump will get 2 delegates and the 2nd place finisher will get 1 delegate, so long as they notch 20% of the vote.
4) 0ptimus Research published an in-depth poll of New York (likely a Kasich coordinated internal). Trump had a commanding lead in all 27 of NY’s Congressional Districts.
5) However, there were a number of CDs in the poll where Trump was “vulnerable.” and polled < 50%. They are as follows:
Pro-Kasich CD 7 (Brooklyn), CD 12 (Manhattan. Queens), CD 13 (Manhattan, Bronx), CD 15 (South Bronx), CD 16 (North Bronx/Southern Westchester), CD 19 (Hudson Valley), CD 20 (Albany), CD 21 (Watertown, Plattsburgh, Adirondacks), CD 22 (Rome, Utica, Southern Tier), CD 23 (SW NY, Ithaca, Corning, Fredonia), CD 24 (Syracuse), CD 25 (Rochester), CD 26 (Buffalo), CD 27 (Buffalo Suburbs)
Pro-Cruz CD 9 (Brooklyn) CD 10 (Brooklyn/Manhattan)
6) Remember, most of these polls did not collapse the undecideds. 0ptimus did not push the undecideds that hard and had Trump <50% (the only poll that did so). The released the poll with 13% undecided.
When 0ptimus pushed the undecideds, the undecideds fell to 9% and Trump had 51% of the vote.
The other polls favor a push into the mid-50s for Trump.
7) The closer you get to 60% the closer Trump gets to grabbing all 95 delegates. A safe assumption if the polling is correct is that Trump should get roughly 80-90 of the delegates at the RCP average of 53%.
Handy Links
New York State Board of Elections (includes breakdown by CD)
CNN Results/Exit Poll
Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk
New York Times Exit Poll/Results (has D and R Totals on same page)
Real Clear Politics NY Average
The Green Papers (likely breakdown by CD)