>> Cruz blocks Trump from locking up the nomination with 1237 before the convention.
Check.
>> At some point Cruz realizes that the GOPe isn’t going to give him the nomination.
There is no shadowy GOP-E involved; there are delegates voting.
Trump has no motivation to offer anything to Cruz on the first ballot; he may win all the marbles on ballot #1. Game over.
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot (note that Cruz can’t because of bound delegates), then the shoe is on the other foot. Cruz has no motivation to negotiate with Trump because he has everything to gain on ballot #2 (and nothing, really, to lose).
HOWEVER...
I’ll grant that depending on what the 2nd ballot looks like, at that point they may have reason to negotiate. The nature of that negotiation is anyone’s guess. When you think about it, this is WHY they have a convention, with multiple ballots and progressively unbound delegates.
>> That’s when Trump gives him a call offering the VP slot if Cruz unites with Trump to stop the GOPe.
... or even the other way around, depending on how ballot #2 goes.
~~~~~
Putting aside the friendly rivalry for a moment — this is going to be a darned interesting convention no matter how it turns out! One like I haven’t seen my whole life, and I’ll bet you haven’t either.
Unless Trump gets to 1237 before it starts, that is. Then it’ll be dull. :-)
FRegards
I'm assuming the GOPe has no intention of giving the nomination to Cruz, and that their campaign to line up loyal GOPe delegates has been more effective than Cruz's effort to do the same for himself. Based on the relative size of their respective power bases that's the safe bet.
... or even the other way around, depending on how ballot #2 goes.
Most of what you say is reasonable. But Trump will never accept second place to Cruz or anyone else.