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Also note that Trump usually gets fewer votes than the polls indicate, and Cruz usually gets more. In WI, the polls on 4/3 said 39% for Cruz, and he ended up on 4/5 with 48%. Trump often falls 11-31 points lower in his lead/deficit between the final polling and the actual vote tally. The worst example is Kansas. Trump was supposed to win 35-29, as polled on March 3, and on March 5, he lost 48-23 (from up 6 to losing by 25 within two days). Idaho was almost as bad. On 2/26, it was Trump winning 30-19, and Cruz won on 3/8 by a 45-28 margin (a 28 point swing, from up 11 to down 17). There are 11 states where Trump's lead dropped by more than 11 points in the last week, and only 1 state where his lead jumped up by more than 3 points at the end (jumped up by 6).

The polls have Cruz within the margin of error against Hillary, and Trump down 10... and Trump doesn't do as well as the polls, and Cruz does better than the polls indicate. Those who want an anti-GOPe proven Conservative candidate who has a real chance to win should be getting behind Cruz, not Trump. Trump won the Old South when there were 8 candidates, but the majority of his biggest wins were/will be in the most Liberal states. He got 49.3% in MASS, and will (probably) FINALLY top 50% for the first time, with the Primary season more than 3/4 over.... and only in his very liberal home state. He will NOT win those states against Hillary.

PREACH IT, Teacher!

Brilliant analysis. Cruz outperforms the polls probably because he has a precision turnout effort focused on his core base of traditional Christian conservatives and maybe young conservatives as well. He’s doing the same turnout trick with that group that Obama did with blacks, hispanics, etc. And that effort will prove just as fruitful in the general election as it has in the primary.

You would think the pollsters would have realized this by now and start spotting Cruz at least 5 points no matter how their results come out.