Posted on 04/11/2016 11:06:45 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie
This is a FReeper Field Report on the Pierce County WA GOP Caucus, which yielded a very interesting result.
In Washington State, National Delegates to the Republican Convention are determined by the open Primary. We may see a lot of Trump support, and Democrats who cross over for Trump. Cruz may or may not poll well here.
However, at our county caucus, the Cruz people totally dominated the Trump people. In our Legislative District, it was 25+ Cruz folks to no more than 6 Trump folks.
Cruz people voted the Cruz slate for delegates to the State convention, locking up virtually all the seats for Cruz. Alternates are likely to be mostly Cruz, but then we ran out of people, and some Trump folks may get into the Alternate pool.
See Pics immediately below the article for a visual demonstration of the relative strengths of the candidates' Ground Game in Pierce County.
Suppose for a moment that Cruz's ground game was that good all over the State. What that means is that while Trump may win our District, County and State, the State Convention will be almost completely full of Cruz delegates.
When National Delegates are chosen by the Cruz delegates from the Districts who are attending the State Convention, they will be required by Party Rules to vote in the First Round for the winner of the Open Primary, probably Trump. But these will likely be all Cruz people. When they are released from that obligation on the Second Round of voting, they will probably vote their actual preference, Cruz.
So, while Trump may completely overwhelmingly win the Washington State primary, and therefore the First Round of voting at the National Convention, he may lose all the Washington State Delegates in Round 2, because they are all Cruz people.
That would result in a pretty wild ride. Hang on tight, folks. It's gonna get bumpy.
The same thing happened in Iowa this weekend. I guess Cruz got 11 of the 12 from our district, one of four in Iowa.
Those photos were taken within 2 minutes of each other.
lyin’ cheatn’ Ted........he probably let the air out of those veterans and widows tires... all I know is that if Trump loses it’s only because someone like lyin ted or the GOPs or aliens cheated...... Trump never loses
where is my pitchfork
Actually, those are the rules that have been in place for a few cycles. So there’s no cheating. It’s called “playing well according to the rules.”
Didn’t you attend one of these?
Cruz is also heavily favored here in Yakima county.
Trump will win it all in the first round. It’s a good game plan because he knows he’s an outsider, so he can’t count on party machinations no matter how much money he throws at it. So he just has to flat out win the first time around. And he IS - and he’s doing it right in front of everyone, and all anyone can talk about is him losing.
Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.
Thank you for participating and reporting.
Thank you for the very straightforward update. I appreciate that I couldn’t detect any bias in your reporting of the situation.
In addition, I agree with you. If no on reaches the 1237 threshold to win on the first ballot, then your words say it all. “Hoo boy. Gonna be very interesting.”
Washington is a closed primary, so how will independents and Dems cross over to vote for Trump? It looks like April 25th is the last day to register or change your registration.
If Washington is a closed primary, then it changed between when I moved away in 2002 and came back in 2011. I’ll have to check ....
Gotta have a good ground game.
This simply shows that the Cruz supporters are more organized and dedicated than the Trump supporters.
We all know that who wins the presidency is not necessarily determined by the popular vote. The Electoral College has the final say.
Similarly with the Party nomination. The winner needs a majority of the delegates, which is not always the same as the majority of the popular vote.
How is this cheating? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, this is how it’s always been. Trump and his team should’ve anticipated this if they wanted to beat the long-time insiders at their game.
Apparently, we have a strange system:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonpartisan_blanket_primary
Which amounts to an open primary.
Settle down noob. There’s still time for pitch forks. ;)
But first I need to spread the “flat veteran tires” rumor....errrr...fact.
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