And it's still two freaking months before this horse race is over and the next one starts.
I thought Cruz could still theoretically win, but he needs nearly 90% of the remaining delegates. What I wonder is, what will he do if it becomes mathematically impossible? Will he stay in as a spoiler and hope for a contested convention, or will he cede to Trump in an effort to destroy the GOPe? If he’s truly an outsider, anti-establishment guy, he should do the latter (cede to Trump). However, I think he’ll do the former and hand the convention to the GOPe.
Interesting site. Thanks.
There are 769 delegates remaining in the upcoming primaries. Cruz currently has 502. 1,237 needed to win nomination.
1,237 - 502 = 735 needed to win
769 - 735 = 34 “margin”
So, of the remaining 769 delegates, Cruz needs to win 735. It is already an impossibility.
Cruz wins 100% of the vote in the remaining primaries and he still falls short. Why doesn't he get out? Oh, that's right, he really believes he's going to be anointed at a contested convention by a GOPe that is only using him and which utterly despises him.
What a tool.
I have been saying for awhile that Trump will secure the nomination after California votes. Most people keep listing California as proportional. Which is WRONG.
California is winner take all (by congressional district) Just like Wisconsin!
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Wisconsin - Winner take all by state (18 delegates) and individual district (8 districts x 3 delegates =24)
California - Winner take all by state (10 delegates) and individual district (53 districts x 3 delegates =159)
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So a big win by Trump in California will result in him winning all the congressional districts and thus winning ALL the delegates, just like Cruz just won all the delegates from Wisconsin.
I have not seen a SINGLE news reporter talking about Trump coming up short that has gotten this right. They usually give Trump about 100 or so of California’s delegates. I think they are purposely doing it to keep the horse race talk going. Because pretending Trump will only get 100 or so from California is the only way they can make it look like Trump will come up short.
Interesting, but sliding one slider changes the others, and it assumes kasick stays in.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3417898/posts?page=1#1
Mrs. Bill is entitled: the most popular woman ever to trod the planet and confident to the hilt.
Mrs. Bill must be elated at the turn of events: she can win still by losing nearly everywhere. People like Mrs. Bill and wonder what “programs” she has in mind for them.
Ted can use this slogan: Ted Cruz: Fighting for Real New York Values!
Trump has some very good policy positions, but he is a terrible candidate in that he blunders into some incredible faux pas, and he comes off as petty and juvenile and vindictive. He would really be an attractive candidate if he “cleaned up his act.” Being an iconoclast — and he is that — is a good thing, and he can parlay that to the presidency if he plays it right.
But, he won’t. It just isn’t who he is.
I voted for Trump in my state’s primary (though my decision was neck-and-neck with Ted Cruz).
I like a lot of things about Ted Cruz, as well. I just don’t think he is electable in the general election.
Still, if the GOPe throw us another designated loser and stiff Trump and Cruz, I will simply write in one of them in November, because by that time the GOP will be dead as it will be clear to everybody that the GOPe will happily cede the election — and the country and its future — to the rabid progressives on the left.
I hate to sound pessimistic, but I’m afraid the magic and beauty of what America was created to be is coming to an end. It was a hell of a ride, though, wasn’t it? Unless there is a traumatic change, with all that entails,
it will be generations before that America can resurrect, like the proverbial Phoenix.
I’m glad I’m 65 and have no children. I would despair to think what they would have to go through under the fascist progressives.
i see an improbability of any candidate making 1237...
yes, if kasich and cruz dropped out, trump would definitely win, but that can be said of any candidate...
we will see who at the end of the process has the most delegates... good luck to both camps.
one will back the other if he wins, one will take their delegates and stay home if he loses, probably.
Very interesting, playing around with it seems to indicate that Kasich staying in is actually better for Trump. If Kasich gets 10% and Donald 42% going forward then he makes the cut, but if Kasich gets 0 and Donald the same 42% then he doesn’t quite make it to the goal line.
Not sure if that is a quirk of the tool or just the way delegates are allocated in the remaining states.
An interesting piece of bird cage liner.
From what I could see there is nothing in the simulation that accounts for the new social media. Like it or not that is what is driving this Presidential election cycle and will probably drive all future cycles.
So, any simulation which doesn’t account for this, and I think it is highly improbable that any will ever do so, is so much useless use of paper, ink, and electrons.