Posted on 03/06/2016 8:12:31 AM PST by patq
"Methodology
These interactive charts show which candidate is on target to win the Republican nomination and which ones are falling behind. They are based on our estimate of how many delegates Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz would need in each primary and caucus to win a simple majority of the 2,472 convention delegates at the Republican National Convention.
We reached these estimates by developing benchmarks for each state in the form of a baseline estimate of the candidates’ support. These are based on an examination of polling data, including state-by-state polling from Morning Consult, a nonpartisan polling and media firm that has surveyed more than 7,000 Republicans online since Jan. 1, along with other surveys from Jan. 1 through Feb. 25 from the FiveThirtyEight polling database.
These estimates are also informed by states’ demographic data and social media data.
Next, we plugged each candidate’s baseline level of support into each state’s delegate allocation rules (for example, proportional vs. winner-take-all) to evaluate how votes would translate into delegates. Then, we gradually and proportionally adjusted each candidate’s level of support until the candidate reached 1,237 delegates nationally. Note that because there are three top GOP contenders each vying for a majority, the sum of the candidate targets in each state often exceeds the total number of delegates available in that state."
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Analysis includes past actual delegates won and future required based on methodology above.
538 updates analysis as needed.
Where do they get 42% for Rubio? Seems very optimistic, if not unrealistic.
Take that, Milt.
Delegate analysis
The way I’ve counted it, Trump is only ~200 votes shy of the 1237 needed, without getting ANY delegates from MI, OH, and FL.
Let's face it....Cruz though he had it in the bag if all he had to conquer was Jeb. Then Trump entered the picture.
Trump announced June 16 2015. Look what he’s done in 9 months. He gave birth to a third party within the Republican Party.
Where is Kasich, no where! Why is this man still in the race???
Rubio’s staying in is a desperate plea for help, ‘I have no future if not now when!’
Kasich ‘Everyone loves me in OHIO’ so what, you ain’t got a prayer!
That’s a very nice chart, state-by-state, comparing actual delegates won, with Nate Silver’s “targeted” delegates that would add up to win the nomination.
On super Tuesday, Cruz’s actual delegates won in each state were either equal to or less than the targeted delegates.
Texas was right on the nose — 104 actual, 104 targeted.
March 5 Delegates:
Cruz 69
Trump 53
Thanks for the info and link!
Keeping in mind that it’s just a hypothetical road to the nomination, the March 5th results were:
Trump underperformed by 16 delegates (i.e., actual was 16 less than targeted), and
Cruz underperformed by 3 delegates.
(Both Trump and Cruz can underperform on the same day, because the targeted count is the pace to an eventual majority, and the actual delegate counts can be such that both candidates are off their targeted pace.)
Trump is still in the lead but in this case the object in the rear view mirror is not closer than it appears. There were a lot of Cruz-friendly states early in the primary process and to Cruz's credit, he outperformed expectations and has kept it fairly close in delegate count so far.
Now Cruz is going to have to post some significant wins outside of the Midwest to keep up. (Alaska and Maine netted Cruz an advantage over Trump of just two delegates).
This is how I see the best scenario playing out for Cruz over the next 10 days:
Kasich wins Michigan and Ohio denying Trump some key victories. This is slightly possible as Kasich is showing surprising strength.
Rubio somehow manages to pull out his home state of Florida, denying Trump the 99 delegates he desperately needs to put this away. This is highly unlikely but never rule out a candidate taking his home state. Naturally if Rubio does not win Florida, he is out of the race and much of his support could end up with Cruz going forward.
Even if the above happens, Cruz will need to pull out some victories of his own. Idaho is expected to go to Cruz. But Cruz will need to surprise in places such as Missouri and North Carolina.
If over the next 10 days Trump wins Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Mississippi and North Carolina, it's basically over at that point.
Will be very interesting to see how it all turns out.
While I would prefer a Trump outcome (if only for the shock value this would cause in Washington D.C.), I could easily get aboard the Cruz bandwagon if he can get through the next 10 days and establish himself as the new frontrunner. It's important that we avoid a brokered convention so that the GOPe doesn't have a chance to slip in another RINO on us.
Cruz has definitely gotten my attention. The next 10 days are make or break.
FiveEightThirty does some nice work. Those graphics are first rate.
Michigan is a wash in the targeted pace:
Of the actual 59 delegates, Trump’s target is only 25, and Cruz’s is 22.
That changes for Ohio and Florida though: the target for each of Trump and Cruz is all the delegates.
NC is also a wash: of the 72 actual, Trump’s target is 26 and Cruz’s is 29.
The problem for Cruz would have been the vitriol which is now focused on Trump would instead be focused on Crruz.
After seeing how a fighter handles the hatred, and the volume directed at him, I think Cruz would have crumbled a long time ago, good man or not.
According to 538 Trump performed almost exactly as they projected.
Cruz was underperforming their projections.
Look at their charts.
Cruz, with his new JEB campaign team in place, certainly had good Sat.
The new Establishment candidate split with Trump, the people’s candidate.
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