Cruz's Path to GOP Nomination Quickly Narrows

Real Clear Politics ^ | 2/25/2016 | Rebecca Berg

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Late Tuesday, as the results of the Nevada caucuses came into focus, Ted Cruz, who came in third behind Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, made the case for his path forward in the race.

"The undeniable reality the first four states have shown is that the only campaign that has beaten Donald Trump, and the only campaign that can beat Donald Trump, is this campaign," Cruz said at a rally with supporters. He won in the only contest Trump lost - the Iowa caucuses.

But if Cruz still has a passable road to winning the nomination, it is quickly narrowing. His viability in particular will hinge on Super Tuesday, the contest next week when 11 states will vote, many of them conservative. It will be "the most important night of this campaign," Cruz said Tuesday.

The March 1 primaries, also called the SEC (Southeastern Conference) primary for the volume of Southern states that will vote, have been integral to Cruz's strategy from the start. His campaign has described these states as his "Southern firewall," including his home state of Texas.

This plan did not anticipate a surging and bulletproof Trump, however. Although states will award their delegates on a proportional basis, not winner-take-all, Trump is well positioned to sweep the Super Tuesday contests -- a potentially devastating outcome for Cruz. Trump is even within striking distance of Cruz in Texas, although polls suggest Cruz maintains an advantage. He is working hard to maintain it, too: On Wednesday Cruz announced the endorsement of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

Part of Cruz's challenge will be to swiftly re-establish his political footing after a bruising week in which Trump and Rubio successfully attacked him as a dishonest and dirty campaigner.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Cruz needs to spend more time in the Senate, eventually run for Governor of Texas, then come back and try again in 12-16 years (if we still have a country left by then...) The intellect is there, but the charisma needs a lot of work.

[Ouderkirk]

Unfortunately for Cruz, his path to the nomination was a path that led to oblivion.

Cruz was never going to be allowed to gain any traction by the mediots, and the GOPe. That he has what support he's got, is a testament to his ability to manufacture support out of strong opposition in a crowded field. He should be proud of what he's accomplished. But no matter what...there are strong forces who are more scared of Cruz than they are of Trump, and they are not going to allow him to get anywhere close to the nomination. Were he to actually win the nomination, they would sabotage his campaign and elect Killery.

It's too bad for Cruz, he's a solid guy. But, his campaign is pretty much over, and he's not going to win, through no fault of his own.

[Raycpa]

[Enlightened1]

Ted Cruz = Trojan Horse

How come Ted’s never mentioned working with W. Bush?

How come Jeb’s never mentioned it?

Ted’s wife worked at the Bush White House.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-2016-establishment-george-bush-21356

 

[HarleyLady27]

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/25/cruz-collapse-ted-cruz-campaign-gives-up-on-alabama-pulls-out-of-state/

[Liz]

Ted/s father, Rafael Cruz, delivered a sermon in August, 2012 where he discusses how Christians should "take dominion over the earth." Cruz goes on to define what that means, saying "dominion is over every area -- society, education, government, economics..." ..... and as a practical matter pols take money from bankers and return it to pastors.

Can/t wait to see Cruz/s tax returns. Cruz/s economic libertarianism dovetails nicely w/ globalist Goldman/Sachs---who financed Ted into office.....G/S is Heidi's $700,000 a year employer. So it looks like the Cruz/s got a headstart on dominionist plans to get money from bankers and return it to pastors.

RAFAEL CRUZ DECLARES TED THE ANOINTED ONE
In his 2013 interview with Christian Broadcasting Networks' David Brody. Cruz said he told his son: You know Ted, you have been gifted above any man that I know and God has destined you for greatness. His dad goes on to suggest that his son Ted is destined to save freedom in America, and even CBN/s Brody called Cruz/s political career a thing of God.

[Dana1960]

I mentioned to someone that DJT should say at the next debate:

“One Bush down, only have two to go.”

:)

[Defiant]

Choosing to ally with Rubio will end Cruz’s career. He may not win reelection, and the GOPe will laugh their asses off as the sabotage and fund his opponent.

[Enlightened1]

I hope so... It's time to expose that and ask why Cruz NEVER MENTIONED it. Ditto Jebby.

Cruz = Trojan

[ASA Vet]

I assume Rafael Edward Cruz is a member of the Texas Bar. What did he declare on his application?

Here is item 5 of the Texas Bar Exam instructions.

5. Proof of Citizenship, USCIS Status, or Other Compliance with Rule II(a)(5): You must provide the documents requested in Question 3.
These documents become part of the Board’s file and will not be returned to you. Photocopies of birth certificates will not be accepted.

 If you are a United States citizen or a United States national, then you should provide the Board with an original birth certificate issued by a U.S. city, county, or state, or an original Consular Report of Birth. Originals are required.
(If you provided this documentation with a previously filed Declaration of Intention to Study Law, you do not need to provide it again with this Application.)

[jospehm20]

I have no idea what proof he provided. I assume he has a passport also.

[LS]

Cruz needs to win a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to keep ANY at the convention. Won’t happen.

[Defiant]

I agree with that analysis. It is why although I favor Cruz's positions overall, I support Trump in this election. I was hopeful that they would end up working together, with Cruz helping keep Trump aligned with the right and being in a position to run in 8 years.

Trump winning this time can give us a chance to have a Cruz or other conservative in the future. Unfortunately, Cruz has lost a lot of goodwill with the way he has ended his campaign.

[DoughtyOne]

Folks, if you're reading this, you know what needs to happen.
It doesn't take a big contribution. Pick your comfort level and
please join others to help put the FReepathon to rest. Thank you.

The above note was first presented to you on 02/25 at around 11:00.
The goal shortfall at that time is depicted to you on the left.
The graphic on the right reveals our status as of 02/26 22:30.
We can finish this by Sunday night. Let's do it.

Let's give Jim, his crew, and us a full month to rest up.

Jim, his crew, and every other FReeper thanks you.

[Psalm 144]

Doesn’t he have to win 8 states with over 50% as well? All this corrupt fine print that the Geriatric Old Plotters have crafted is hard to follow.

[Jane Long]

CRuz shouldn’t have taken the Romney poison pill :(

[Psalm 144]

False prophecy never ends well.

[Psalm 144]

Never go full Willard.

[BlueNgold]

I think Rule 40, the 8 state threshold you mention, is misunderstood.
The key language:
A candidate shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name may be entered into nomination.

So let’s analyze:
Iowa, 30 delegates, Cruz winner, allotted 8, not a qualifying state.
New Hampshire, 23 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 8, not a qualifying state.
South Carolina, 50 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 50, SC is a qualifying win for Trump.
Nevada, 30 delegates, Trump winner, allotted 14, not a qualifying state.

Summary: Trump has 1 of the 8 required majority delegations.

Any win in a WTA state will qualify.

This is a count to watch on Tuesday, but indications are that Trump could gain at least 3 more qualifying states on Tuesday, possibly as many as 9 as delegates in many states are allocated by congressional district the way SC does it.

Come Wednesday, unless something changes dramatically, Trump could be the first, and thus far only, candidate to reach the magic 8. All indications are he will have the 8 needed by the end of March, likely sooner.

It is hard to see where any other candidate picks up 8. Even in states where Trump is behind he may do well enough to prevent Ted or John from getting a delegate majority. And finding 8 states for either of them is tough right now.

(No I didn’t mention Marco in this discussion. He has yet to win any state, and isn’t leading anywhere that I can find, so his path to 8 looks all but impossible.)

The magic 8 rule could actually prevent any other candidate’s name from being entered into nomination. This rule may end up dictating that the ONLY name on the first ballot is Trump. How’s that for irony?

[BlueNgold]

Oops, typo, Trump got 11 in NH, but still not a qualifying state. He needed 12.