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To: sukhoi-30mki

Back in September 2015, when this acquisition was announced, I worked up this post:

“As of January 2013, 78 of the original 744 B-52 aircraft were operational in the U.S. Air Force. (All are B-52H models.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress

The USAF had 66 B-1Bs in service in September 2012, split between four squadrons organized into two Bomb Wings: the 7th Bomb Wing at Dyess AFB, Texas, and the 28th Bomb Wing at Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockwell_B-1_Lancer#B-1B_program

A total of 20 B-2s remain in service with the United States Air Force, which plans to operate the B-2 until 2058.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit

78+66+20 = 164 strategic bombers of three different generations in service.

An 80-100 unit acquisition program represents a 48-60% replacement of the existing force.

If you just count B-52s and B-1Bs, the in service numbers drop to 144 and the replacement percentages go up to between 55-70%.

If we use the 14 aircraft per B-1B squadron as a nominal per squadron target, 80-100 aircraft equips 5-7 squadrons. To maintain operational capability equivalent to four B-1B squadrons, you can go as low as 66 aircraft. Strategic plans, the need for operational rotation of units, and maintenance/overhaul/rebuild planning establish the requirement for multiple squadrons. There also have to be a certain number of aircraft in storage and available for R&D purposes.

ASSUMING the B-52 component is just going to be retired without replacement and that the B-2 bomber capability replacement will be the subject of another program, the 80 aircraft purchase is probably the lower number needed to maintain USAF strategic bomber capability equivalent to the existing B-1B fleet.

The USAF, if it can keep acquisition costs contained, will probably get 80 aircraft. Anything above that will be a bonus.”

If you throw in the 20 B-2s, you get 100 aircraft. (The B-2, as noted above, was going to be the subject of another acquisition program. But that was last September and maybe things have changed.)


21 posted on 02/26/2016 10:21:09 AM PST by Captain Rhino (Determined effort today forges tomorrow.)
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To: Captain Rhino

Nice run down. Thanks. Nice to see real analysis instead of just random cynical nonsense.


43 posted on 02/26/2016 1:06:19 PM PST by TalonDJ
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