Back in September 2015, when this acquisition was announced, I worked up this post:
“As of January 2013, 78 of the original 744 B-52 aircraft were operational in the U.S. Air Force. (All are B-52H models.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress
The USAF had 66 B-1Bs in service in September 2012, split between four squadrons organized into two Bomb Wings: the 7th Bomb Wing at Dyess AFB, Texas, and the 28th Bomb Wing at Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockwell_B-1_Lancer#B-1B_program
A total of 20 B-2s remain in service with the United States Air Force, which plans to operate the B-2 until 2058.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-2_Spirit
78+66+20 = 164 strategic bombers of three different generations in service.
An 80-100 unit acquisition program represents a 48-60% replacement of the existing force.
If you just count B-52s and B-1Bs, the in service numbers drop to 144 and the replacement percentages go up to between 55-70%.
If we use the 14 aircraft per B-1B squadron as a nominal per squadron target, 80-100 aircraft equips 5-7 squadrons. To maintain operational capability equivalent to four B-1B squadrons, you can go as low as 66 aircraft. Strategic plans, the need for operational rotation of units, and maintenance/overhaul/rebuild planning establish the requirement for multiple squadrons. There also have to be a certain number of aircraft in storage and available for R&D purposes.
ASSUMING the B-52 component is just going to be retired without replacement and that the B-2 bomber capability replacement will be the subject of another program, the 80 aircraft purchase is probably the lower number needed to maintain USAF strategic bomber capability equivalent to the existing B-1B fleet.
The USAF, if it can keep acquisition costs contained, will probably get 80 aircraft. Anything above that will be a bonus.”
If you throw in the 20 B-2s, you get 100 aircraft. (The B-2, as noted above, was going to be the subject of another acquisition program. But that was last September and maybe things have changed.)
Nice run down. Thanks. Nice to see real analysis instead of just random cynical nonsense.