You are absolutely right! Don’t know how this election will turn out but the passing of Scalia is not good for Trump, no matter how people will spin this. Cruz is the most conservative Senator with a track record of fighting the moderates in the Senate. He may be the only hope to nominate a conservative jurist with a track record.
Obama will pick Scalia's replacement... and the Senate will approve that person no matter how bad they may be (and you now what sort of person he's going to nominate).
Surely this will put him in first! Delusion runs deep here.