Posted on 02/10/2016 4:56:10 PM PST by Elderberry
The big story coming out of New Hampshire, arguably: Ted Cruz finishing third with a financial outlay of just $580,000, which easily was the best ROI for votes for any candidate in either primary.
Cruz, dismissed by the media after his Iowa victory, and his third-place finish in New Hampshire, is in the game for the duration. In a Wednesday conversation in Jacksonville with his campaign chairman, Chad Sweet, a wide range of topics came up. Among them: Cruz's strategy for Florida; how he intends to dislodge Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, the Sunshine State's favorite suns; campaign strategy more generally, including deep data analysis and the ground game essential to winning competitive primaries.
The first question that came to mind: why, with South Carolina promising to be a free for all as it was in 2000, Cruz's campaign chairman was in town.
Sweet said that the campaign "believes in going anywhere, anytime," and with Rubio failing in New Hampshire, the time was now to make the case to voters in Rubio's back yard that Cruz was a "consistent conservative" and "change agent," as opposed to Rubio, for whom "amnesty shows otherwise.
Jeb Bush, the choice of the money men in Northeast Florida, is equally problematic, and vulnerable on the issue of Common Core and other issues, to be sure.
Sweet said that Cruz will make the sale "handshake by handshake," helped along by members of his team like former Duval GOP Chair Rick Hartley, described by Sweet as one of the "Florida heavyweights" backing Cruz.
And Sweet believes others will follow. Cruz, according to the Real Clear Polling average, is well ahead of Rubio and Bush, with momentum from the New Hampshire win, where Cruz "beat both [Floridians] in a state where the media counted him out."
Part of the key: the ground game, augmented by Camp Cruz, in which unused dorms and old hotels are rented for temporary housing for the Cruz team, at a significant cost savings. And by Cruz Kits ("FEC approved," Sweet assured me), which contain yard signs and other paraphenalia. And by Strike Forces, comprised of "seasoned volunteers from the GOTV effort in other elections."
These elements, augmented by "cutting edge technology" and the "highest investment in deep data analysis," have helped Cruz to two strong showings while maintaining the highest cash on hand of any campaign.
Targeting high propensity voters, Sweet said, was "campaign 101."
The real key to Cruz's strategy, and the "harder part," is the use of data analytics to identify new voters, especially those who might have been "disenchanted in the past," and getting the message to them in a "tailored way."
"Identify[ing] the low propensity voters who other campaigns are ignoring," and "tailoring issues and how they think about those issues," has been key to Cruz's success thus far.
And clearly, will continue to be key.
The Cruz campaign outperformed expectations in Iowa, Sweet said, where the media presumed that a high turnout would lead to a Cruz loss; instead, with the turnout of Republicans up over 50 percent from 2008, Cruz got the highest number of votes of any Republican in Iowa history.
And those votes in that "astonishing victory, even in the face of standing up to ethanol," Sweet affirms, span a "high variety of demographics," including seemingly disparate camps like libertarians and evangelicals, as well as millennials and the non-college educated.
Sweet believes that Cruz is uniquely positioned as one of "only three campaigns with the resources and the infrastructure" for the long haul.
The other two: Bush and Trump. Not, he affirmed, Marco Rubio.
Rubio "spent an inordinate amount of resources in Iowa and New Hampshire," including $15 million on a fifth place finish in the Granite State.
"Rubio depleted his coffers," Sweet said, and "has a ground game in those two states," with some minor strength in Nevada, Sweet added.
Now? "Marco is dangerously close to being out of ammunition," even as the media "has a love affair with [Rubio] as the Golden Child."
Regarding Iowa, where Rubio was lauded for a strong third place finish, Sweet said it was a case of "bronze is the new gold."
Sweet was dismissive of the viability of John Kasich in the south, and likewise sees an opportunity to go toe to toe with Donald Trump.
"More and more voters are examining track records of the candidates in detail," Sweet said.
While Trump and Cruz share an "anti-establishment message with strong appeal," the "central question is who can change Washington" and who has a "track record of fighting for change with consistent conservative principles."
Sweet shares Jeb Bush's contention that Trump is vulnerable on issues like eminent domain, having "played the corrupt crony capitalist game to advance his business interests," giving to Democrats and Republicans alike... and giving more money to the Clinton Foundation than to veterans' groups historically.
Trump is also vulnerable on the abortion issue, where he is "pro choice in every respect, including late-term and partial-birth abortion" procedures.
And Trump's health care plan? "Obamacare on steroids," Sweet said.
On immigration, meanwhile, "Turnstile Trump" favors "touchback amnesty," allowing deportees back into the country after they are removed.
Judging from my conversation with Sweet, the Cruz strategy boils down to taking out Rubio, undermining Trump's newfound conservative stances, and a tactical detente with Bush, for now.
We'll see how that plays out. So far, though, Cruz has a gold and a bronze in two primaries, with the friendly territory of South Carolina and the SEC Primary ahead of him.
The good news is in a few weeks we’ll know the answer and get on with defeating Hillary (or Biden or Warren, or whoever).
“Sweet said that Cruz will make the sale “handshake by handshake,”
I wonder if Cruz could name anyone who was ever satisfied after a handshake deal with him?
Cheat?
“The survey found Trump maintains the top spot in Florida among registered Republican voters with 27 percent. Rubio is in second with 20 percent, followed by Ted Cruz at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 6 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is fifth with 4 percent, according to the survey.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3395470/posts
Let's see what the next poll says.
I question this $580,000 outlay. Hell, ads would eat that up in a week. What about his extensive ground game, was that on the house? I’ve heard before that Ted put a lot into NH, lots of trips, resources.
Cruz is once again mimicking Trump, spent less, yada yada. This guy can’t do anything on his own, steals every idea and oh yeah, votes.
How many people came forward in Iowa and said their votes were stolen?
An estimate based on extensive news reports of them coming forward will be fine. Thank you.
In the meantime, Cruz is ramping up efforts in New Hampshire. He held a town hall Tuesday night that packed a high school gym in nearby Londonderry despite heavy snow, in which Cruz delivered his stump speech packaged as the State of the Union response he would give a year after taking office. Next up is a five-day bus tour beginning Sunday that will hit every county in the state. His wife, Heidi, was canvassing in the state last week, and as in Iowa, his team has set up dorms here to house out-of-town volunteers, many of them young and hailing from places as far-flung as Missouri. Some were making calls on a cold, dark Monday evening at Cruz's Manchester headquarters and watching Fox News, which was projected onto an entire wall of the room.
"As you would expect, he's going to spend quite a bit of time here between the Iowa Caucuses and the primary," pledged O'Brien of Cruz. "I expect he's going to become almost a full-time resident here."
He's put out the word he hardly spent any time or money in NH and still came in 3rd. I'll look at money next.
After Trump wins SC and NV Cruz will be Carson.
The best ground game is a 757.
“I wonder if Cruz could name anyone who was ever satisfied after a handshake deal with him?”
His wife? GO TED!
Yep. :-)
Good catch There were Cruz people here crowing before the vote yesterday that Cruz may even win NH. Now it’s Cruz didn’t even try
Cruz is a liar period. He and his minions prepared this false narrative to spin their loss and provide false hope for SC. Geez the guy has all the talk radio bugs shilling for him but people still see right through him.
Good article. Very informative.
Cruz has a tough, but possible, road ahead.
Let’s have Cruz vs. Sanders and let’s decide between America and Socialism once and for all.
As a NE Floridian, Cruz will win the NE and NW of Florida. He may have some problems in central and south FL but if he gets our governor’s backing, it will go a long way. GO CRUZ!
I loved my time in Florida. I was stationed on the Lex in Pensacola from 74-78.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.