[sphinx]

So by your math, you have Trump second in a three man race. LOSER. But what you sketch is a plausible scenario, with Rubio, Trump, and Cruz as the finalists. Do the Cruz supporters bolt for Trump? Unlikely; Trump is poison on the social issues and big-government activist on economics, while the Cruz base is heavily tea party and evangelical. It would be easier for the conservatives in Trump's camp to move to Cruz, unless they are actively anti-the traditional values crowd. Right now this is masked by the Trump bandwagon effect, but if the perception of inevitability is punctured, all bets are off. A lot of Trump's supporters just want to be with a winner.

If Rubio falters, the question becomes whether his supporters would break for Trump or Cruz. The tension between the traditional values voters and the culturally liberal RINO's may be the decisive factor.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

So by your math,

I didn't even do my own math, which would have removed "very conservative" voters from Christi and other candidates, since they weren't all filled up with moderates. And if we don't do that, your best scenario only has Trump losing by 2 points-- where we assume his numbers do not change at all as 4 or 5 people drop out.

So please do not misrepresent what I'm telling you to save your irrational point of view here.

Do the Cruz supporters bolt for Trump? Unlikely; Trump is poison on the social issues and big-government activist on economics

This is a ridiculous and baseless assertion. Trump dominated with the most conservative voters in New Hampshire. Why would the remaining numbers be shy about voting for Trump? You are basically assuming that every single one of these voters are CruzBots who actually buy the BS from team Cruz about Trump secretly being for abortion and the like.

In the real world, they will be voting for Trump.