No it wasn’t reasonable to run with an assumption on a caucus night.
Check out the video in @CNNPolitics’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/696194244470509569?s=09
Perfect 20-20 hindsight.
Moody's tweet says that Ben Carson will not go to New Hampshire or South Carolina. Those are the locations of the next primaries. If Carson was not going to show up for the next two primaries, what would be the most likely explanation?
The endlessly repeated fact that Moody's tweet does not specifically say that Carson is dropping out of the race is irrelevant. The question is, was that a reasonable interpretation? The answer is obvious.