Ted’s Pyrrhic victory in Iowa didn’t give him a bump up in the NH polls because everyone knows he won with Doc Carson’s votes. The primary was tainted by Ted Millhouse Cruz. Cruz doesn’t get public’s credit for winning.
Cruz was never going to do well in NH and doesn’t need to.
The race shifts to the South next week. Last night’s debate was a disaster for the GOPe. It’ll keep at least one if not 3 of Rubio’s contenders for the establishment lane in the race, diluting the establishment’s ability to field an organized resistance.
I would rate the nomination at this point a complete toss up between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with the inside track going to Trump.
1. If Rubio doesn’t implode here, he’ll have an advantage later when the more moderate states are winner take all. That said, he torched himself last night. If I were him, I’d start airing “I’d rather lose an election than be wrong on life.” - arguably his best soundbite ever - all over the South.
2. Cruz has the funds and infrastructure to do well in the South. If it’s down to a two man race after March, advantage Cruz.
3. Trump really needs to stick with the issues that brought him to the dance. “It’s gonna be great, trust me.” Is wearing thin and won’t support him the distance. That said, if Rubio stays viable after March 1, then serious advantage to Trump. Trump wins a three way race.