Posted on 02/07/2016 6:54:01 AM PST by mandaladon
I can’t help to think that Trump’s #s, while high, are not really that high but that’s the narrative the media will push so that if he wins with say, 6-8% margin of victory,(ordinarily a strong win) it will be looked upon as a “soft” win and those lower down will be looked upon as overcoming a previously thought insurmountable lead to have “won”. It’s propaganda.
The Savior (trade mark)
LOL...I thought that was CRuz’s theme song, from IA. ;-)
Don’t even try to rationalize with the irrational these days.
Cruz lead in all the polls till a week out when he allowed crazy Beck in campaign. Then he immediately went down. Beck is a moron.....
I haven’t seen CRazy Beck issuing any more fake oaths....or even stumping....with CRuz, since that, have you? But then, I don’t follow those two very close....just via the threads.
You mean that he'll win by only 13 points instead of 17? Well, okay, if that's a humbling, we might just see it.
Fact is, it was always tight in Iowa and I don't remember Trump ever having a large lead there. In fact, months before, polls were already showing Trump behind in Iowa, although at that time, it was Carson and not Cruz that was in front.
It's kind of an oddball state that requires you to personally shake hands of every registered voter at least three times and to spend the better part of six months of your life there starting around July, in which you visit pretty much every state fair in blue jeans and flannel shirts. You also have to pretend to like their gastronomical fare like corn dogs, because that's what the "reg'lr people eat there." Donald Trump was caught taking one bite out of a corn dog and tossing the rest of it in a trash bucket. Sure that cost him a few votes right there!
But all in all, it wasn't a disaster there for Trump. Yeah, he came in second but was only 4-5 points behind and he ended up with 7 delegates - only one less than Cruz. So effectively, we came out of Iowa in a three-way tie (Rubio also pocketed 7 delegates).
It does appear that Trump will gain the majority of NH delegates (even if he is "humbled" by a less than expected percentage win) and gain the overall delegate lead headed into New Hampshire. It is also a good possibility that Cruz might finish third place behind Trump and Rubio. Personally, I hope that does not happen. I want to see this race come down between Trump and Cruz and I don't want Rubio or any other GOPe candidate having a chance.
But what will the Cruz folk be saying next week if that happens to play out and Trump takes an overall lead in delegates into SC? I'm happy that Cruz did well in Iowa. He certainly worked hard for it and probably would have still won even if the Carson kerfuffle didn't happen. But I was disappointed to see the Cruz supporters spend the entire past week gloating and "socking it to" the Trump supporters here. There's nothing wrong with taking a victory lap and being happy for your guy but the venom displayed was really unnecessary. I hope that the Trump supporters show a little more class when their guy wins Tuesday night.
Rubio had a Rick Perry moment last night.
I don’t think he’s gonna recover from that! Look for his numbers to drop. Christy will likely get a bump.
I think the Democrats & the GOP will beat him up with this issue. Trump has to get the true story out, explain Eminent Domain to the people and neutralize this issue.
Fox has really gotten on my nerves throughout this process.
Give it a couple of days, give it a couple of days.
IMHO....both Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio are now complete burnt toast!!! Jeb Bush is worse then burnt toast since he needs his Moomy to help him!!! Bottom line, IMHO, after Tuesday night results are in:
First - Donald J. Trump
Second - Chris Christie
Third - John Kasich
Fourth - Marco Rubio - Not ready for Prime Time Toast!!!
Fifth - Ted Cruz - Cheat, lie teller, & religious fruitcake, allied with Lunatic, ego-maniac, Glenn Beck - sick person!!!
Sixth - Carly Fiorina - Media shortchanged her, but, not ready for prime time!!!
Seventh - Ben Carson - Good man. wronged by “roach low life” Ted Cruz!!! Not ready for prime time!!
Eighth - Jeb Bush - The Donor King - useless and hateful - needs Mommy to assist him!!! cannot make it on his own!!!
IMHO.......any vote cast for Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Fiorina, Carson is a totally wasted, thrown away vote!!!
The only coincidence I can find in the debates and the polling and vote results is this:
Trump attended all the prior debates and moved up in the polls after each one. He was criticized by the media after each debate but voters didn’t seem affected by that.
He skipped one debate and promptly “underperformed” in Iowa.
I didn’t expect Trump to do as well as his polling in Iowa. Many people who will vote for Trump don’t want to argue with their neighbors about it as the lines are drawn so sharply on Trump. A voting primary won’t present that face-to-face caucus problem to voters.
Also, the margin of error on these polls is about 3.5% to as high as 6%. And primary voters are still making up their minds so polling is often inaccurate.
NH and SC will be very interesting.
Amen and agree with your analysis :)
Iowa GOP presidential preference was a secret ballot.
So Iowa winners Sir Lard Huckabee and SweaterVestMan won the general? Who knew?
Bwhahahaaaahaaaa...maybe put it on a cornflake box lofl...
No, he will do well in NH. They allow anyone, be (R), (D), (I) to vote. he will have some of his crossover support out voting for him. This is one of the reasons more conservative candidates don’t generally do well there.
I don’t believe these polls, I just got an email from Cruz saying that Trumped just dropped out.
“The entire week’s media cycle was this: Cruz cheated, Cruz is a nasty guy, Cruz is terrible”
—to be fair, it’s not only the media saying this. Also his colleagues, competitors, family, casual acquaintances..
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