No so much Iowans lying as pollsters relying on old and outdated polling methodologies that haven’t been updated to account for modern data-driven GOTV.
Cruz really seems to get the whole big data GOTV thing, in ways the other GOP contenders don’t. My analysis of this is that Cruz used data to find pockets of first-time or inconsistant voters who leaned in his direction, targeted them aggressively and turned them out in ways inconsistant with past patterns (iow tossing the “belweather” precinct concept out on it’s ear).
This is exactly what Obama did in 2012. His campaign went aggressively after new/inconsistant Liberal voters and got them to vote. Because no one was expecting the formula to change as drastically as it did, he ended up with a “surprise” reelection win.
#Grassroots Matter