Posted on 02/04/2016 5:04:07 AM PST by patq
Iowa rejected Reagan and picked George H. W. Bush.
Enough said.
As expected all of the moderates are doing much better in NH.
Rubio’s going to win this race. The unnecessary war of 1 and 2 in Iowa gave him new life, and he’s going to clear the field early of all the old school establishment guys by the time SC primary ends. He’ll probably get 2nd in NH and take command of the narrative.
DT, in particular, misplayed January in an effort to knock off Cruz when he needed Cruz to finish 1st in Iowa and try to build a convincing 2nd place finish. Instead he faded to almost 3rd.
Cruz had a bad month, too, but he won the event, which was their goal. He’s not well positioned moving forward. He needed to have a good close to Iowa and needed to have a much better victory speech to open some eyes. Obama gained momentum with his original Iowa win, but he also had a tremendous speech afterwards that catapulted him the rest of the way. Cruz had a long, meandering speech not aimed at the TV audience, but the people in the room. Not strategically smart, and unless he has a surprising performance in NH or SC, he’s not going to build any more momentum.
If this poll is correct for New Hampshire, then according to this historic trend, the GOP nominee for 2016 will be Trump or Rubio. Both finished in the top 3 in Iowa and finished in the top 2 in New Hampshire.
Once past N.H. and S.C. Rubio will sink like a rock. The folks down South are not as forgiving about what he did as the moonbat infected state of N.H.
The objective by the Rino forces and some democrats to kneecap Trump are now doomed to fail. Rubio doesn't have the ground game to beat him. If those opposed to Trump had instead gone to Cruz...the Donald may have been tripped up.
Now it is too late as Rubio has destroyed that plan.
Trump will now go on to win the nomination. After N.H. there is no way to trip him up...much less stop him. They missed their chance by backing Rubio.
It MAY still be Trump/Cruz...but a lot of forgiving will have to take place before that happens. But I think the delegate count will decide that...whether both sides like it or not.
Rubio is going nowhere.
He is a lightweight who hasn’t been vetted.
He has tons of baggage. He’ll go down in flames when he starts taking hits.
Cruz, Jeb and Christie will go for his throat on the next debate. If Rubio finishes second they are done.
New Hampshire. Which really is just a suburb of Mass.
It FR courtesy to ping those about whom you post.
Exactly. Trump needs to stop complaining about Iowa and focus on Rubio. Ted is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Rubio is the problem and Trump better not take his eye off of him. Trump’s smart enough to know this. This is equivalent to two investors beating each other up and then a third investor shows up and steals the deal. Nobody is a bigger supporter of Trump on this board than me, but he needs to stop with Iowa and start hitting the cabana boy on his amnesty. There’s enough material to criticize both Rubio and Cruz legislatively. If Trump would just talk about jobs, immigration and being an outsider, he’d win this going away.
You’re just weird, ok?
Trumps ground game in IA was -10 points.
If we split that he is down to 26 points. Also this poll has 8% undecided. Bravo Sierra.
We need a likely voter screen, which would have no undecided voters, or very little.
I think some of the undecided voters are either Cruz/Trump supporters.
If Cruz picks up 4 of the undecided and 5 of Trump’s softies, he is at 23% or only three points behind Trump.
I would take that split going into SC.
Thanks, but it's a long time since courtesy's been appropriate for those two.
Then you had your chance to be the better person.
**Trump will now go on to win the nomination. After N.H. there is no way to trip him up...much less stop him. They missed their chance by backing Rubio.**
I’m predicting that Trump ‘s Twitter obsession will lead to his demise, leaving me no one to vote for. I think I’ll just clean my toilet on primary day.
Ivanka, make it stop!
You nailed it.
Rubio takes votes away from Cruz and from Jeb.
You won’t see Trump attacking him anytime soon.
“Yikes, Cruz drops to 3rd. “
Funny. That’s exactly what the Trumpers said before Iowa..
...or conservative
[Cruz, Jeb and Christie will go for his throat on the next debate. If Rubio finishes second they are done.]
If Trump is smart, he will mellow his tone in this debate.
If Cruz starts ranting and raving at him, Trump needs to take the higher road and calmly point out that Cruz is unhinged and suffering from TDS. This unpredicted tone will through the media in a tizzy as they won’t know what to hammer Trump on.
To keep up with the soap opera drama, they will need to sensationalize any arguments between Cruz and Rubio.
... It is FR courtesy to ping those about whom you post.
Thank you. Couple of weeks ago I was freepmailed some were discussing me without pinging me and read speculation that I was actually Mark Levin.
This poll showing Rubio 1 point ahead of Cruz is fine. I suspect the NH polls showing DT lead are as wrong as those in Iowa. Nobody expects Cruz to win NH though I would not be surprised.
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