Exactly.
Iowa rejected Reagan in favor of George H. W. Bush.
When they pick someone, you run away from the person.
Iowa picks are always bad news.
Look at it this way, they are a firewall against bad candidates. They rejected "Read my lips" Bush in 88. Rejected McCain in 2000 and 2008 and Romney (narrowly) in 2012.
I guess you could look at it that way. But look at the winner of the past several Republican caucuses vs the eventual nominee (which is bold/underlined).
1976 - Reagan 248 precincts vs Ford 264 precincts
1980 - Reagan 29.5% vs GHW Bush 31.6%
1988 - GHW Bush 18.6% vs Dole 37.4%
1996 - Bob Dole 26%
2000 - GW Bush 41%
2008 - Mitt Romney 25.2% vs Huckabee 34.4%
Half of the time, they pick the nominee correctly.
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/caucus-history-past-years-results/