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To: grania
Those high-paying jobs associated with the oil industry fueled many economies. Does anyone have a clue what happens when those well-paying jobs, globally, are lost? Will the money saved by consumers be spent in a way that creates jobs that pay well or in a way that creates low-income job opportunities?

Of course - over time. High commodity prices are a tax on industrial end users that process them into consumer products. The problem is the huge amount of capital poured into the commodity sector - capital that has been and will continue evaporating into thin air through bankruptcy filings - stock that is written down to zero and debt that is repaid at pennies on the dollar, if at all. People who invested in these companies will be hurting now, whereas the benefits are diffuse and a lot more gradual. But that's the rough-and-tumble of capitalism for you.

Capital is invested in a sector to the point of overcapacity. A product glut leads to major price drops and massive losses. This causes the closure and liquidation of companies in the sector. Upon which the sector is starved of new capital. Then product scarcity leads to price increases and fat profits. New capital is invested in the sector to chase these profits, and the cycle has gone full circle.

The problem for commodities today is that it has gone through 15 years of a bull market driven by rampaging Chinese demand that saw China's economy expand ~8x from $1.2T in 2000 to $9.4T in 2013. The Chinese economy has either slowed down or may be contracting. Which means the commodities overcapacity ramping up for the next few years - through investments started several years ago - will exacerbate the pricing issues in the commodities world. In short, the bear market in commodities probably has several years to run, since it's only been in existence for a couple of years, coming as it does on the tail of a 15-year bull run.

18 posted on 02/02/2016 2:37:18 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

You speak of the normal cycle that would bring supply and demand back in check. But as with other things such as the labor market, do the cycles function in a global economy?


19 posted on 02/02/2016 2:51:29 PM PST by grania
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