[chajin]

If Trump were politically street-smart, he would already be making a backroom deal with Rubio to combine forces against Cruz; a Trump/Rubio ticket would be unbeatable for the nomination (whether it could win the general is another issue). As a Cruz supporter, that is the one scenario that scares me.

[JSDude1]

Neither Trump nor Marco Rubio wants to make a deal like that. They both want to be on top, as does Cruz!

[Dr. Sivana]

If Trump were politically street-smart, he would already be making a backroom deal with Rubio to combine forces against Cruz; a Trump/Rubio ticket would be unbeatable for the nomination (whether it could win the general is another issue). As a Cruz supporter, that is the one scenario that scares me.

Yup. When I simulated the primaries a month ago or so, I overestimated Carson but figured Rubio would have to be the Establishment pick. I came up with a deadlocked first ballot, with Cruz at 900, Trump at 800, and rubio at 500+. Trump could cut a deal with Rubio to make him VP (Cruz would be offered AG and maybe an open SCOTUS spot to unite the party). I want Cruz in the top spot, but that would be a strong ticket, and an impossible deal for Rubio to pass up.

[HoustonSam]

I don’t know where Rubio stands in the New Hampshire polls, but he’s probably going to get a bounce coming out of Iowa. Maybe not enough time for such a bounce to show in polls before the vote in New Hampshire, but enough time for media coverage to re-set expectations and give The Rube momentum.

I believe New Hampshire is now a must-win for Trump and I wonder if Rubio might actually be a threat to Trump there. If Rubio does defeat Trump in NH I think Trump is a goner at that point; his “winner” brand would be twice defeated. And I don’t think his twitter messages today are helping him.

I suspect my guy Cruz will be primarily a spectator in NH. If he came in second I would be ecstatic. But he will need to be very strong in SC afterward.