New poll shows four-way battle for 2nd place in N.H. GOP primary (Jeb-MENTUM in NH?)

Boston Globe ^ | 1/28/16 | James Pindell

[jimbo123]

A new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters once again puts New York businessman Donald Trump in the lead, but it also shows a quickly shifting and intense fight for second place.

Notably, former Florida governor Jeb Bush has moved into a four-way statistical tie for second place in the survey, along with Ohio Governor John Kasich, US Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

Trump had 27 percent, while Cruz and Kasich had 12 percent, Bush had 11 percent, and Rubio had 10 percent in the survey. Another 12 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they were undecided in the Feb. 9 contest.

"Donald Trump's loyal 27 percent continues to stand tall in New Hampshire," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. "The 27 percent isn't a skyscraper, but it towers over the four candidates vying for second place. One of those four candidates needs a big Iowa surprise to create momentum so that he can break into the 20 percent range in New Hampshire. If there are no surprises in Iowa, they will divide up the undecided voters evenly and Trump will prevail."

The poll comes as good news for Bush.

[jimbo123]

[TornadoAlley3]

Is this winner take all state?

[browniexyz]

Those $5.00 per piece mailings Jeb sent up there paying off? And here we thought no one read the mail anymore, just listened to TV. Hmmmm....

[Red Badger]

[Redmen4ever]

four-way race for second? second to whom?

[Calvin Locke]

... four-way statistical tie

I'm gonna guess that they mixed and matched different ranges within the domain to get that result.

That is, they chose a large std dev to fit Yeb! in so they could report it that he's [statistically] tied for second place, and diminish the current also runnings-ahead of him.

[austinaero]

Well the Cruz campaigners are being twerps,,puts Cruz in a new position, defending his #2 or #3 spots...

While Trump soars above them all.

[kingu]

Yep, yep, so glad that we’re focusing on fighting between Trump and Cruz, it opens the door wide open for Jeb! to come running through.

Shut the door and let’s keep the attacks focused on the real enemies - The GOPe and the liberals who can’t wait for four more years of screwing the country.

[kidd]

No.
The first winner take all state is South Carolina (Feb 20)

Although New Hampshire has a 10% threshold (if a candidate doesn’t get 10% of the votes, they get zero delegates)

[Robert A Cook PE]

They would do better to have put a $5.00 check in each envelope.

Once the vote is cashed, the check is signed by the closest GROPe representative (er, poll taker).

[kiltie65]

That’s my worry, too. If Trump should fail in the coming months by outside influences (maybe the Clinton’s have something on him), and Cruz and Rubio get easily outed on citizenship issues, who would Bush have to beat? Just Carson...and Bush can easily outspend Carson. Dangerous ground here. GO TRUMP!

[Robert A Cook PE]

They HAVE TO show Jeb!'s "improvement" to generate the improvement to get the enthusiasm to show the improvement - Jeb! MUST get above 10% to get any delegates at all.

[Defiant]

More like Jebicide.

[Ancesthntr]

“Jeb! MUST get above 10% to get any delegates at all. “

---

Here’s hoping for 9.98%!!!!

[COUNTrecount]

Trump had 27 percent, while Cruz and Kasich had 12 percent, Bush had 11 percent, and Rubio had 10 percent in the survey. Another 12 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they were undecided in the Feb. 9 contest.

His pocket turtles must be doing hand stands.