The biggest problem with Turkey right now is that they are too closely integrated with the civilized world. Specifically, their membership in NATO is a disaster waiting to happen. They are spoiling for a shooting war with Russia, Greece, Syria, the Kurds, at times Israel, pick one.
This presents a particular problem for the west since:
1. Greece is also a NATO member and when have two NATO member states gone to war?
2. Two of those countries are nuclear powers, Israel and Russia.
3. Three of these countries Israel, Greece, and the Kurds, are, supposedly, strong US allies.
I don't think Russia is going to put up with much from the Turks in the coming year. Why should they? Is Obama going to go to war for Turkey? Are any of the other NATO signatory nations? Germany? The UK? Italy? Canada?
I largely agree, my single caveat being the question on how much of this is Turkey as a whole, or just Erdogan?
Yes, it is a likely trigger for WW3.