Posted on 12/26/2015 7:27:40 AM PST by Helicondelta
In 1982, California voters were supposed to elect former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley as the state's next governor.
Bradley went into the election with a sizable lead over George Deukmejian. Exit polls projected a Bradley win. But when the ballots were counted, Deukmejian came out the winner.
Thus, the "Bradley effect" was born - named as such because many white voters, who told pollsters they were voting for an African-American (Bradley), ended up breaking for the white candidate (Deukmejian).
Could Donald Trump be the 2016 version of a reverse "Bradley effect?"
That's the theory of a new study released earlier this week by Morning Consult, a DC-based data and technology company.
The study examined a mystery that has confounded polling analysts over the past few months: Why does Trump perform better in online-based surveys than polls that include live-telephone interviews?
The study posited that voters, when interviewed by pollsters via telephone, are reluctant to admit their support for a controversial candidate whose critics have painted him as racist. In self-administered online interviews, on the other hand, they will be more likely to admit their support. And that will more likely reflect their eventual decision in the privacy of a voting booth.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
People lie to pollsters.
No, I don't think we're going to see a "Trump" effect. Rather, I think "believe the polls." I think the big three of Reuters, OAN/Gravis, and Morning Consult, plus PPP, have been pretty much where the race is for several months now.
If he were not in a good position, the media would be IGNORING HIM.
Any media attacking Kasich? Jeb? Christie?
Nope.
I thought it was called the Wilder Effect.
But agree with it. Lots of people supporting Trump are not saying anything - until they pull the lever.
There’s also a huge enthusiasm gap. This is what Obama rode - twice - with all the blacks turnout out to vote for him (so Obama could bring in Hispanics to replace them).
All about turnout. Trump folks will turn out.
Remember the Republican elites telling us we need black votes, working class white votes? Trump delivers and they hate him. I’ve never seen such a meltdown that the Washington establishment is having. It’s like Andrew Jackson is coming to town and bringing the unwashed masses with him.
The same thing has happened over and over, when states were allowed to vote on the definition of marriage. The liberal view was that it was bigoted to define marriage in the traditional manner. Then liberals experienced angst at how such votes in marriage passed by bigger margins than anyone expected.
Then the liberals decided we are not allowed to vote on that subject and forced their views through the courts.
That was the prediction back in June - that Trump had great name recognition but when more people heard him that they would be turned off and change their allegiance to another candidate.
It was supposed to happen when he made light of Sen. John McCain for being a prisoner of war in Vietnam. But it didn't. It was supposed to happen when he made fun of the way Carly Fiorina looks, but it didn't. It didn't happen when he said he would deport 11 million illegal immigrants and build a wall to protect our southern border. And it didn't happen when he said he would temporarily prevent foreign Muslims from entering the country.
It's now late December and Trump is still in the lead. According to an average of national polls conducted in the last month, Trump has a 17-point lead over Sen. Ted Cruz in second place, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio in third. The mainstream media are still predicting a win by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who, according to the average in national polls, has support of 3 percent.
Anything can happen in politics, and one thing to remember is that recent polling has proven to be woefully inaccurate. People have cell phones, which are more difficult to poll, and caller ID, which means those polled are largely a self-selected group.
I don't know what the figures are, but most of the busy people with jobs and children at home don't answer the phone when it is a weird number, or even a number they don't recognize. They let the call go to voicemail and return the call if it turns out to be someone they want to talk to rather than some form of survey, poll or robocall.
In the 2014 election, the polling was way off - indicating that the Senate might end up with a 50/50 split. The Republicans easily won control of the Senate with 54 seats. In the House, the Republicans were predicted to lose seats, but they ended up with a historic majority. The fact that the House and Senate Republican leadership has chosen to do absolutely nothing with their majorities may affect the outcome of this election.
And it may turn out that when people go to the polls they won't vote for Trump, but nobody knows whether than will happen or not until the voting starts in New Hampshire and South Carolina in February.
If Trump's numbers prove accurate, then all the talk of a brokered convention may turn out to be just like the talk of a split Senate - utter hogwash. If Trump wins a couple of early states, he's going to be hard to stop.
It's worth noting that so far Trump has spent relatively little on his campaign because he hasn't needed to spend money. Trump gets on the front page of newspapers and on prime time television just by being Trump.
But if he needs to start advertising to win, Trump has the money, and he - better than any other candidate - knows how television works.
There is a huge backlash in this country, not against Democrats or Republicans, but against politicians in general. It's funny to see politicians who have been in office for 10 years or more get up and say that they aren't professional politicians.
Trump, Dr. Ben Carson and Fiorina were all doing well early, largely because they are not politicians. Fiorina was a one-time wonder. She had one good debate and is now down with the also-rans. Carson was doing well until he started talking about his religion, and he doesn't do well on the stage with all the other candidates.
http://www.rhinotimes.com/Content/Default/Columns/Article/Under-the-Hammer-Dec-24/-3/7/877
Or it could really be a bradley effect.
The “Bradley effect” was supposed to have elected Romney in 2012......
Today Drudge reports that Bill Clinton will campaign for Hillary.
This is a mistake on so many levels that you have to conclude the democrats are either so out of touch they think Bill Clinton still has the touch or the democrats are very very desperate because Hillary is sinking below 50% approvals amongst democrats.
Trump will take Hillary’s serial felonies and Bill’s rape escapades and torch them. The democrats are so morally bankrupt that they have to sift through the sewer to feature the grossest disease infested rats as the best they have.
I also have a theory, one that says Hillary is far better off than many think she is,
Obama has a demonic evil spirit inside him, it now occupies the oval office and will never willingly leave,
Whoever the candidate is that is most likely to receive that same evil spirit will be its next occupant,
Hillary’s entourage is already arriving out front, she wont be kept waiting,
which IS ???
Does this mean that Hillary is really African-American? Wow. Who knew?
Bump
Rush came up with this some time back on the show ...so the theories not theirs
Bill Clinton was an adequate campaigner and politician back in his day. But we will see if his day has come and gone. He says some awkward bizarre things in his old age.
And remember Clinton never got above 50% of the popular vote in his elections. He won three way races where Ross Perot siphoned off big amounts from the Republican candidates each time Clinton win election. So its debatable how popular Bill Clinton ever really was.
Not Me...
I get a fair number of telephone polling calls.
IF it is for Carson, Rubio, or Jeb, I am not very polite.
I told the Jeb person-—an actual live person-—that I would NOT vote for Jeb if he was the last living human on candidate on earth & I was the last living voter on earth. Same thing for Shrillary.
I just hang up on Carson & Rubio polls, because they all seem to be robo calls & completely automated.
I have no trouble with the Trump calls. They have been polite.
Polls are erratic these days. I know many people that if they don’t recognize the # coming across the phone, they don’t answer it and opt for a voice mail.
Text messaging doesn’t work well either. I don’t think selections are random anymore. So the +/- are high and the polls can be manipulated at will.
I think the biggest indicator of popularity are turnouts for stump speeches.
Sanders is the “we don’t want Hillary” vote, so Hillary has to pander in terms of the socialist left in order to pick up and motivate those votes if she gets the nod.
But it’s clear. America’s foray into progressive socialism will die in 2016. Trump is going to motivate so many voters that he’ll swamp Hillary campaign boat.
Trump will likely get many votes from traditionally Democratic voters, unions for example. He also will likely get a higher percentage of the black vote that Republicans normally get. Female votes could be his biggest problem.
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