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Poll: Ted Cruz leads in Iowa; Donald Trump stays atop NH, SC
CBS ^ | 12/20/15 | Staff

Posted on 12/20/2015 7:42:33 AM PST by VinL

Donald Trump, the national front-runner, keeps his big lead in two of the three early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, but now Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has moved past Trump into a lead of his own in Iowa.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio remains in double digits in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Governor Chris Christie has now shown upward movement in New Hampshire, doubling his support there in the last month.

The backdrop to all this is a mood of anxiety - both economic and personal security - pervading the GOP electorate in these early states. Nine in ten in all states feel the country is now a more dangerous and insecure place, including 95 percent of Iowa GOP voters who say that, and nine in ten feel the nation's economic system is one that hurts them instead of benefits them. Terrorism and national security are now specifically front-and-center on primary voters' minds: in Iowa, 61 percent say it is their top decision-making criteria for candidates, ahead of the economy; in New Hampshire, 66 percent cite terrorism and security ahead of 28 percent on the economy.

horseracegopiadecember.jpg

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: canadian; cruz; elections; immigration; ineligible; trump; trumpanzees; trumpees; trumpwasright
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To: VinL
40! That's the highest by far Cruz has been at, much higher than Han even the DMR poll which Trump and the Trumpbots skinned about. IOWA is in the bag for Cruz.
41 posted on 12/20/2015 8:32:28 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: SmokingJoe

It ain’t in the bag till its over but Cruz is most definitely well in the lead in Iowa and closing fast in NH.


42 posted on 12/20/2015 8:33:53 AM PST by cripplecreek (Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.)
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To: Red Steel

LOL :)


43 posted on 12/20/2015 8:34:19 AM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: SmokingJoe

A whole 4 days ago! So ancient LoL.


44 posted on 12/20/2015 8:34:50 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: Leaning Right

I don’t talk politics with my sister, who has always been a Democrat. I did happen to mention Trump yesterday during a conversation, and oh my - she and her entire family - are all in for Trump. People are going to be surprised. She does not like Ted Cruz. So, Cruz isn’t going to get the Reagan Democrats - he just isn’t.


45 posted on 12/20/2015 8:34:58 AM PST by Catsrus (I callz 'em as I seez 'em)
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To: Signalman

Not only that, but he crosses his legs like a girl. Sorry - he just does. And all that huggy, huggy, fake stuff for an ad is nauseating.


46 posted on 12/20/2015 8:36:10 AM PST by Catsrus (I callz 'em as I seez 'em)
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To: Jane Long

With this Margin of Error MOE it could be in Iowa Trump 38%, Cruz 33%. It is such a small sample size that it is almost meaningless.


47 posted on 12/20/2015 8:38:35 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: LS

Trump will never get more than 27% in IA. Not going to happen.

Linn County (Cedar Rapids) is a MUST win for Trump.

2008 Total Caucus Votes: 7,881
2012 Total Caucus Votes: 8,718

2008 Results:
Huck - 2,013 - 26%
Romney -2,435 - 31%
Thompson - 1,157 - 13%
McCain - 948 - 12%
Paul - 861 - 11%
Guliani - 401 - 5%
Hunter - 27/0%
Others - 41/0%

2012 Results:
Gingrich - 1,017 - 12%
Romney - 2,530 - 29%
Perry - 786 - 9%
Bachmann - 411 - 5%
Paul - 2,089 - 24%
Santorum - 1,818 - 21%
Huntsman - 64 - 1%
Others - 3 - 0%

Total 2004 General Election Votes: 110,740
Bush - 49,442 - 45% to Kerry - 60,442 - 55% + Others

Total 2008 General Election Votes: 113,707
McCain - 43,626 - 39% to Obama - 68,037 - 60% + Others

Total 2012 General Election Votes: 118,711
Romney - 47,622 - 40% to Obama - 68,581 - 58% + Others

Percentage of GOP Caucus Turnout based on final vote total for McCain and Romney:

2008: 7881/43626 = 18.0%
2012: 8718/47622 = 18.3%

Based on this, projected turnout from Linn County would be steady, about 18%. GOP Voters have decreased in the last decade, but to be competitive in the state, the GOP needs to win at least 43% of the vote. The projected 2016 General Election turnout is about 121,000 votes which means the GOP Candidate needs to get about 52,030 votes in November.

18.0% * 52,030 = Projected Caucus Turnout: 9,365 Voters

An increase of 600 voters. Trump is looking for an increase of 2K or more. It just doesn’t look possible at this moment, mainly because Linn has grown more Blue than Red.

As for the 9,365 Votes:

Cruz is currently running better than Santorum and Huckabee. At a Minimum, he has about 2,400 votes - 26%

Trump needs at least 40% here if he has any ideas of winning IA. That would be 3,746 Votes. While a 1,300 vote win in Linn would be good, he needs a 3-4K vote win there along with the other “blue” counties to have a chance. And based on the numbers I don’t see that. Based on the CBS Poll, I’d say he’s got just under 3000 votes here.


48 posted on 12/20/2015 8:39:47 AM PST by parksstp ("Truth is NOT Rhetoric" - Sen. Ted Cruz (The obvious conservative choice for POTUS))
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To: VinL

49 posted on 12/20/2015 8:40:54 AM PST by gwgn02
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To: Catsrus
So, Cruz isn t going to get the Reagan Democrats - he just isn t.

According to CNN

Clinton 50%, Trump 40%
Clinton 48%, Cruz 45%
Clinton 45%, Rubio 48%

50 posted on 12/20/2015 8:41:07 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: Catsrus
People are going to be surprised.

You bet. I was talking to a lib friend of mine who worked for Hillary during the 2008 primaries. He didn't just vote for her, he went door to door for her.

He's 100% for Trump now. Amazing.

51 posted on 12/20/2015 8:41:22 AM PST by Leaning Right (Why am I holding this lantern? I am looking for the next Reagan.)
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To: VinL

If you want a repeat of the Johnson/Goldwater election, than Cruz is your guy.


52 posted on 12/20/2015 8:46:00 AM PST by heights
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

No republican is going to get the Reagan democrats because they simply don’t exist anymore in a meaningful way. Pandering to a ghost only loses the base.

In the case of Iowa and all the new voters supposedly coming out for Trump, they don’t appear to be registering to vote or changing to GOP.


53 posted on 12/20/2015 8:46:42 AM PST by cripplecreek (Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.)
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To: Duchess47

I doubt cBS or many of these pollsters are counting Trump’s new caucus voters and he is making thousands of them in Iowa so they don’t get counted in their polls.

Trump is sitting pretty good in Iowa.


54 posted on 12/20/2015 8:48:22 AM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: SmokingJoe
--- Gonna just make my prediction now. Ted Cruz is gonna win the nomination. ---

We could have had Ted at 100-1 odds in Las Vegas just a few months ago. I m not a gambler, but I m kicking myself. We could have made 10k on a $100 bet. Ugh!

USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Cruz the new king, Christie gains ground

55 posted on 12/20/2015 8:49:50 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: heights
If you want a repeat of the Johnson/Goldwater election, than Cruz is your guy.

As I mentioned earlier, if I could pick the next president (not the nominee, but president), it would be Ted Cruz. But I am a strong Trump supporter for the reason you just stated.

56 posted on 12/20/2015 8:50:06 AM PST by Leaning Right (Why am I holding this lantern? I am looking for the next Reagan.)
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To: Leaning Right

And how did a Hillary voter 8 years ago become a Trump voter today. Did they “magically” come to a realization of what the true meaning of conservatism is or are they just voting for something they recognize (better liberalism).

Here’s a suggestion: Make your friend listen to a full week’s worth of Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin, then ask them for their impression. If they hate their guts, then your friend is still no conservative and their vote does no good.


57 posted on 12/20/2015 8:59:18 AM PST by parksstp ("Truth is NOT Rhetoric" - Sen. Ted Cruz (The obvious conservative choice for POTUS))
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To: parksstp
Well, you seem to know IA. Can't wait. BTW, is IA GOP only or do they allow crossovers?

Oh, and I get to vote in TWO primaries!! One in OH (presidential) then, again in August after we are AZ residents, I get to vote for Kelli Ward against McLame!

58 posted on 12/20/2015 8:59:47 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: heights

More like if you want to see the Reagan landslide, then Ted Cruz is your guy.


59 posted on 12/20/2015 9:00:39 AM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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To: VinL

“Cruz will dominate Iowa— then the game resets. “

Yep, just like the GOP primary Iowa winners in 2012 and 2008, Santorum and Huckabee. The reset from first place to dropping out. Iowa is a jinx.


60 posted on 12/20/2015 9:02:16 AM PST by patq
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