Selzer’s ‘secret sauce’ is probably a list of past GOP caucus-goers.
I’ve probably talked to hundreds of previous GOP caucus-goers in the last few months and my impression matches her trends.
The problem with declaring such impressions conclusive is that there are always wild cards. Huckabee and Santorum brought in new attendees. (Huckabee supporters have proven to be more savvy than Santorum supporters).
Trump might bring in new attendees en masse, or his crowds may be mostly interested in seeing a celebrity slap down the powers that be and won’t understand their own potential role.
She says that see does take into account new caucus participants, particularly when you have some novel candidate like Trump in the race. We’ll have to wait to see if she got it right.