The double-dealing creep Erdogan wants to use ISIS and AQ to bring down Assad and the Kurds, then destroy them and take over Syria. Now that Russia put a stop to that he wants to use the USA to force Russia out of Syria. So he staged this incident hoping for an armed response from Putin so he could invoke the NATO treaty. So far Putin isn’t biting.
I believe you’ve got it precisely right and Putin is fully aware of it. I’m no fan of Putin’s but I’ll take him any day over the snake Erdogan.