With these moves, Russia now controls all of eastern Syrian airspace, much of southern Turkey, and most or all of Israeli airspace, creating a de facto Russian no-fly zone.
I know you’re called Spetznaz so presumably you know what you’re talking, but while Russia can’t probably manage a full out tilt with Turkey, I suspect they can and now WILL establish air supremacy over Syria. And looking for any Turkish violators they can find for karma. Remember all those people wondering why the Russians were moving the SA-300 batteries into Syria at the beginning...
However, as I had posted yesterday (and pasted below), Russia will probably not do anything. At most what it would do is maybe some posturing (and maybe what some other poster on this thread stated - bombing the Turkmen held areas), but there will be no hit against Turkey. NATO may be comprised of many countries that are not necessarily strong, but (a) as an entity it is significantly more powerful than Russia, (b) Turkey is one of the more powerful NATO countries, and (c) a certain superpower called the United States of America that can absolutely mangle Russia in a conventional war. Yes, Russia does have the option of nuclear war, but that would be opening a whole different kettle of fish, and while many people think that there can be 'winners and losers' in a nuclear conflagration, the truth is that there would only be 'major losers' and 'even more major losers.' Thus nuclear war is not happening.
Russia will not want to engage NATO, and NATO will not want to engage Russia. The issue is that Putin is probably under pressure to DO SOMETHING, especially since doing nothing means that it is okay to shoot down Russian pilots. At the same time, Turkey is under quite some scrutiny by NATO on why they did not just escort the planes out, which is generally what has happened for 5 decades, but it still is a full member of NATO and thus has the requisite protections. A good example would be if you had a teenage son who came and threw mud on my windscreen, and I get out of my car to come and give him a 'good lesson.' Chances are that even though you wouldn't be happy that he had thrown dirt at me, you wouldn't necessary just stand there and let me introduce him to the sole of my rather large shoe! Same thing here ...Turkey is fully protected by NATO, and that's that.
What I posted yesterday:
Russia will do nothing.
Why?
Well, it has three options. The first option is to do nothing, with the reason for this being that, while Russia is not weak, it is not as strong as it wants others to believe it is. Action would mean the inception of a convoluted decision tree of reactions and consequences, with some paths leading to WW3, others leading to a scruff-up with Turkey, and a few even leading to Turkey doing nothing. However, as Russia cannot influence that decision tree, it will do nothing as it is not as strong as would be necessary for it to do as it likes (unlike the US, which - leadership dependent obviously - can genuinely do as it wants/likes without fear of immediate consequences).
The second option Russia can do is what I call 'posturing.' By this, what it would do is to (a) escort every attack plane with a couple of air-to-air fighters (and this would mean Russia bringing several SU-27/30s into the region), or (b) moving up a couple of S-300 platforms nearer to the area so that their long range radars can light up Turkish fighters (and the S-300 can target the Turkish airforce while they are WITHIN Turkey), or (c) both. You'll see the Russians constantly lighting up Turkish fighters with radar, but no missiles fired.
The third option is for Putin to basically unleash ROEs and let Russian fighters/SAMs take out any Turkish fighter that comes close, damn the consequences.
I suspect it will be option 1.
If Syria tells Turkey they “do not have permission to fly in Syrian air space and Obama said ‘Turkey has a right to protect it’s borders’ so, we do, too.
We have authorized Russian planes to fly in Syrian air space and they will shoot down any unauthorized aircraft in Syrian air space.”
Russia only has the ability to establish air supremacy over Syria if the US allows it to do this.
With these moves, Russia now controls all of eastern Syrian airspace, much of southern Turkey, and most or all of Israeli airspace, creating a de facto Russian no-fly zone.