I’d like to add to your post GG2.
Here’s a very good reason that Pollsters are likely not counting who will show up to caucus for Trump. If a person who is polled saying to pollsters that he did not caucus in the last election or never has, the pollsters will not count that person as a likely voter. It’s the way these pollsters cull the list, but with Trump they would be making a very big mistake.
As may recall, Trump got about 3,000 at his rally in Burlington, Iowa filling the building to the rafters in the sparsely populated area. Santorum in 2012 won that county, Des Moines county, with only 388 caucus goers. I predict Trump at least triple Santorum’s number to win the county easily. Multiply that across the state of Iowa and Trump takes Iowa in a cake walk. So Cruz and his supporters should not get too cocky.
I agree. Nobody knows what the first time voter turnout for Trump is going to be. I feel like it will be a significant factor.