Let’s play this out: Ted Cruz continues to gain-maybe he’s close to where Carson was..
He wins Iowa, that gives him a boost, however New England is still split between Trump (in the lead, Rubio second because let’s face it they’re more into the establishment, and Cruz a close 3rd).
The boost out of Iowa gives enough “mo” for Cruz to overtake in the more conservative South, Trump still dominates in the NE, and Rubio is squeezed out.
Then it’s one one and one and I believe in that situation that Cruz wins.
Jeb and Rubio are not going to get out of the race right away and it looks like Carson will hang in there through Iowa and who knows even NH. So as long as its a four man race Cruz will never be able to consolidate enough votes to get near Trump. IMO.
As Carson bleeds out Trump is going to get a significant portion of his supporters. Cruz will likely get some but not enough to bounce from 8%-9% to 32% or more. Overall the polls are pretty accurate and nationally Trump is just killing it. I don’t see anybody catching him unless he commits an unforced error and he’s probably too smart to do it.
I would say its possible Cruz takes Iowa and maybe Texas.