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"For things to reach that scale, you need more than a single aircraft shot down, because no country in their right mind will declare war over this incident. So NATO countries (obviously other than Turkey) will just put up a statement, saying "please tread carefully" and that's it. What happens between Russia and Turkey now? Probably a political crisis, nothing more. Russia has already invaded Turkish airspace numerous times in recent history and Turkey repeatedly warned them. If you don't carry out your promises, you will get bullied by stronger nations all the time, that was what's happening. So Turkish military decided to shoot it down this time. And to be honest, Russian military was expecting this at some point. A single aircraft doesn't worth that much in the grand scheme of things, Russia won't make a big deal of this."