If Trump runs as a third party candidate, the Republican comes in third. I would not be confident he could defeat Hillary. Hillary goes into November, 2016 race with 38 to 40% of the vote.
The republican conservative base is 19% of the electorate.
Trump/Cruz gain nearly all the base.
Independents comprise 42% of the electorate of which 29% are conservative or lean conservative.
Trump/Cruz gain nearly 29% from Independents.
Reagan democrats comprise 5% of the electorate.
Trump/Cruz gain nearly all the Reagan democrats.
Latinos comprise 8% of the electorate.
Trump/Cruz gain 3% from Latinos.
Blacks comprise 13% of the electorate.
Trump/Cruz gain 2% from Blacks.
Total 58% landslide and likely more as momentum picks up more supporters.
Consequences are that the GOP presidential organization dies. Republicans in Congress will pledge to work with the Independent Trump/Cruz or risk being thrown out by their constituents. Many will switch affiliation to Independent.
2016 will be an historic election with grave consequences to the GOPe. This Freeper remembers Mississippi and Mark Mayfield and will not rest until justice is served. Millions of others have the same view and aim.
If you recall, Bill Clinton won with 43% of the vote in 1992 thanks to Ross Perot.