As long as Carson doesn’t go completely out, Trump will probably win Iowa. Trump doesn’t have a majority of the evangelical voters, but he does have quite a large number of them, only slightly behind other folks. Trump then conquers with new voters, moderates, liberals, the youth, the very conservative, etc.
Cruz and Carson are running a campaign just trying to reach out to this one narrow group. Outside of places like Iowa, it won’t play well.
In the general election, Cruz’s whole religious-based campaign would be bizarrely tied to Glenn Beck of Mormon cult fame and the stupidities and excesses of Dominionism/7 Mountains theology, as personified by his own grifter father.
Outside of this narrow group of folks who will be kookified by the media, Cruz, nor Carson for that matter, would have any broad appeal, whereas Trump is running away with the white blue collar vote, and Americans of every stripe, shape and size.
After Iowa Cruz will fade rapidly since most activity thereafter is Primaries. And his money begins to dry up very quick when the real air wars start.
“Cruz and Carson are running a campaign just trying to reach out to this one narrow group. Outside of places like Iowa, it won’t play well.”
Actually, Cruz is reaching out to 3 of the 4 major GOP constituencies; Evangelicals, Tea Party Conservatives and Libertarians, and doing quite well with each group. He is very well-funded and well-organized in all the early states. He has written off the moderate/establishment wing, and is not making a big play for the more moderate New Hampshire.
Bottom line though is he is doing far more than appealing to one narrow group. Anyone that says otherwise is simply not paying attention.
Trump will probably win Iowa!