[ZOOKER]

This latest post confirms my suspicions:

... Iraq's output in 2015 has jumped almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 13 percent, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

An increase of half a million barrels per day? How?

[thackney]

They have been making pretty good increase most years for a while now.

'13 to '14 was about ~400 MBPD increase, 20% larger is not such a stretch.