I think Ted is the up and coming sleeper in this race. Watch out for him.
You would be a fool to underestimate what Cruz is organizing...you seem to have your head on right though. Cruz IS the one to watch.
If Cruz is the nominee, know this. He will get virtually no Democrat crossover vote. No black vote. Less Independent and Hispanic vote than Romney did. I suspect a significant % of Trump voters will not vote at all. Cruz is a politician and people who are yearning for results that change the status quo no longer trust them.....for good reason.