Saudi has been exporting more crude this year compared to last year.
They have been expanding refinery and petrochem capabilities for years but have a long ways to gone in their plans.
At the following link there is a chart of several years of Saudi Exports, Crude Oil versus Refined Products.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/#Supply
Production in Saudi Arabia dropped by 80 kb/d in September due to slightly lower exports and domestic consumption, but - at 10.2 mb/d - remained near record rates. September marked the seventh consecutive month of Riyadh pumping in excess of 10 mb/d and the Kingdom shows no sign of abandoning its policy to defend market share rather than supporting prices. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al Naimi said in an early October interview with India’s Economic Times newspaper that “eventually, economic producers will continue to prevail”. The influential Saudi oil minister convinced OPEC last November to maintain its official 30 mb/d output ceiling despite oil’s collapse - arguing that to reduce output would only hand more market share to non-OPEC producers.
More than half of the Kingdom’s crude oil sales are destined for Asia, where the battle for market share is at its most pitched. In early October, Saudi Aramco cut its official selling price for crude loading in November for customers in the region. The latest figures submitted to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) show Saudi crude exports running at around 7.4 mb/d from January through July compared to about 7.3 mb/d during the same period in 2014. Total Saudi oil exports, excluding condensates and NGLs, averaged around 8.4 mb/d during the first seven months of the year versus 8.1 mb/d during the same period in 2014.
Thanks for the good and detailed information! I’m a little surprised that they didn’t progress further than that with refining before the recent crude moves.
For anyone who hasn’t already seen it, here’s a link to other, more general recent news about Saudi economics.
Saudi Arabia could be bankrupt within five years, IMF predicts
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-could-be-bankrupt-within-five-years-imf-predicts-a6706821.html
And yes, there’s some sensationalism to filter from popular news publications. The Saudis would be expected to avoid default before long with changing market conditions.
The IMF report
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/eng/pdf/menap1015.pdf
Canada may also be anticipating price changes in the near future with predictions about taking on more debt in the meantime. Baby Trudeau recently announced that he’d be supporting Keystone XL development, but politicians up there had best get more friendly than that with production. If the NDP in Alberta is really so friendly with labor, it might have an internal conflict about oil to resolve between labor and anti-oil interests oblivious of their near-future dependency on oil. Only some guesses there. I don’t know much.