Many people underestimate the effects of low employment growth, productivity, low or negative income growth, negative income and wealth effect, relative to pre-Great Recession period (in large part due to fiscal and regulatory policies of Obama administration) as well as cheaper production of many goods and services due to automation, disunionization and importation of deflationary or disinflationary trends from parts of Europe and Asia, and more recently huge "tax cut" for consumers in the form of lower oil / gasoline and energy (coal, NG) and commodities (iron, steel, copper etc.) prices which dampened the rise of consumer prices (different sectors are affected differently to these inputs) which are countering generally inflationary administration policies, like ObamaCare, rabid "environmentalism," financial regulations etc. etc. ...
From The Bacon-Cheeseburger Index - B (sub), by Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal, 2015 October 03
Janet Yellen is plotting the monetary future using complex data points that consider inflation, employment, and productivity. But one brokerage is resorting to more tangible evidence: bacon cheeseburgers. Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, a global brokerage based in New York, tracks "off the grid" economic indicators. He found that measuring the prices of ingredients in a bacon cheeseburger can determine the impact of inflation. Colas tracked prices for ground beef, cheese, and bacon since 1980 he left off the bun "in deference to history and those on a low-carb diet." It turns out the bacon-cheeseburger index reveals deflation over the past few months. On a year-over-year basis, the ingredients fell 2.9% in June, 1.2% in July, and 2.7% in August. Historically, bacon-cheeseburger deflation has signaled a slowing economy, he notes. "Go back through the price history, and negative 3% to 4% price declines for bacon cheeseburgers are often a sign that the Fed needs to cut interest rates and push liquidity into the domestic economy. I know that sounds weird, but the last time our bacon cheeseburger showed negative price trends of this magnitude was in 2009. Before that, it was 1998 [Asia crisis] and 1991-92 [Gulf War I]." Will Yellen heed the warning and delay rate hikes? Colas urges her to sink her teeth into this issue: "Even if bacon cheeseburgers aren't on the cafeteria menu at Fed HQ, Chair Yellen would do well to heed the sizzle of deflationary pressures." Uh-oh: The last time the bacon-cheeseburger index showed deflationary trends of this magnitude was 2009.
Also have to keep in mind that "inflation" or more properly, CPIs, are measured year-over-year, so comparing the price of certain goods or services today to the prices of decade ago is not a proper measurement of consumer price increases or decreases.
Also, the increase in money supply (or more accurately in this case, US Dollar supply) whichever Mx you want to use, will not necessarily show up in consumer price increases, since it's used and in high demand all over the world, even at a ZIRP rate, since quite a few countries have effective negative interest rate of return.
I'm sticking to the Snickers Index.