Hurricane Joaquin Forecast: Why U.S. Weather Model Has Fallen Behind

nytimes.com ^ | October 2, 2015 | Nate Cohn

[ilovesarah2012]

For days, the models that guide the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts had been split over the future of Hurricane Joaquin.

Different models were sending the storm to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina or to Maine or to Bermuda. The official forecast — which held that the storm would make landfall in the mid-Atlantic — was “low” confidence, as the center put it. It was an attempt to compromise between models that fundamentally disagreed.

Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.

If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.

[Alberta's Child]

I don't think it's a coincidence that the European model has consistently outperformed the North American models. The North American models are probably rigged to exaggerate the probability of landfall in a densely populated area ... for the sole purpose of driving media hype and TV news viewers.

/not totally sarcasm here/

[wrench]

That system has languished in the SE for 10 days. The cold front stalled out, then became an occluded front when a warm front from the south joined it.

Pull up a surface chart, and you can see what I am saying.

Also, pull up a pressure chart and look at the isobars.

Moisture is flowing north, but not because of the storm. If the storm were influencing you now, you would have winds out of the N, changing to NE, then E. You would have no S winds till after the hurricane passed.

[Conservative4Ever]

The libs will still find a way to make a crisis out of it, landfall or no.

[USNBandit]

Wish I had started that ark before now.

.....and where did I leave my cubit measuring tape.

[Purdue77]

Roger that.

[Swirl]

Numerical weather prediction codes are deterministic, with their core based on numerical solution for the equations of motion and 2nd law of thermodynamics. Assumptions are made for precipitation physics and how the initial fields are determined. Advances in computer technology now allow incredible resolution and speed, as they are run on much-processor supercomputers.

The greatest weakness of these models is how they are initialized. They need good estimates of the three-dimensional momentum, mass, and temperature thought-out the depth of the atmosphere. Surface measurements alone have little benefit. If the models had good initial guesses, they probably would be able to predict when/where thunderstorms would begin several days in advance.

Satellite measurements have been over-hyped as the answer to this problem, but after 4 decades only small progress has been made. We have spent huge amounts of tax dollars in this area that could of have been diverted to other technologies that would have been more effective. Satellite derived temperature and momentum data is very coarse in resolution and short on quality. However, apparently, the Europeans through aggressive research programs have milked these products for extra benefit in forecasting skills.

Lastly, American research centers, such as NASA, have been taken over by bureaucrats that seem more interested in avoiding risks, growing their programs, mired in process and PC hiring, and unable to recruit and maintain a talented work force.

[PIF]

Nah. They are just using new math ... while the Euros are using good old fashioned real math.

[ilovesarah2012]

Not to mention getting kickbacks from grocery stores.

[GreyFriar]

I have to give Virginia’s governor an “good decision” on this one. In emergency preparedness, it is better to have the resources and people in place before the storm arrives rather than trying to get them out afterwards.

[bezelbub]

"The European model comes from a private consortium whose sole interest is forecasting the weather. The American and Canadian models are infected with some of the same crappy science as the global warming models (which are much coarser and more heavily parameterized)."

I don't think so: From their web-site:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states.

ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The Centre also offers a catalogue of forecast data that can be purchased by businesses worldwide and other commercial customers. The supercomputer facility (and associated data archive) at ECMWF is one of the largest of its type in Europe and Member States can use 25% of its capacity for their own purposes.

The organisation was established in 1975 and now employs around 280 staff from more than 30 countries. ECMWF is one of the six members of the Co-ordinated Organisations, which also include the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the Council of Europe (CoE), the European Space Agency (ESA), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). ECMWF is based in Reading, UK.

[bezelbub]

Global warming “models” can predict the climate in 100 years and is considered settled science.... But hurricane “models” show vastly different scenarios only four or five days out....

You can bet on the outcome of a football game. But it is generally impossible to predict what will happen exactly in the seventh minute - until you are at 6'55" :-)