Posted on 10/02/2015 10:01:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Let’s all consider taking one small step backwards and examining history as a determining factor over the ramble of endless cable news shouting matches.
Everyone today loves to look at, and obsess over, the Republican nomination polls as an indicator of the dire trouble that former Florida Governor and dynastic kin Jeb Bush is in. “Skittish” is the editorial word of choice used here to describe Bush supporters, who see his fifth place ranking as a sign of worry.
Real Clear Politics polling data as of today suggests that Bush falls behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio.
Stop it. None of these people will be President. Rubio, maybe, but still a stretch. Let’s look at the last two Presidential elections to see how the Bush of today is stacking up.
A Gallup Poll released October 23, 2007 gives the following description of the Republican nomination process (I’m willing to bet you don’t remember half of the names mentioned):
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has held a statistically significant lead in every Gallup national preference poll since February, averaging a 12-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson the past three months. Arizona Sen. John McCain is third, but usually just a few points behind Thompson. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has not gained much traction in the national polls. In the most recent Gallup Poll, just 10% of Republicans chose him for the Republican presidential nomination. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has seen his support pick up a little in the past few months, but he remains in single digits. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback’s departure from the race — announced this past weekend — will almost certainly have little direct effect, as he consistently polled at only 1% or 2% of the vote.
Did you catch the part about Arizona Senator John McCain in there? You know, the guy who became the nominee in 2008? He was in third place behind Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. In fact, Rasmussen and NBC News polls from September-October that year firmly placed McCain anywhere from a distant second to fourth; President Giuliani seemed like a done deal.
On to 2012, shall we? Let me remind you of the line from NBC News’ Mark Murray on October 13, 2011 when he wrote, “Fueled by Tea Party supporters, conservatives and high-interest GOP primary voters, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.”
That happened.
And even in polls when eventual nominee Mitt Romney was in first, he was deemed as the dominant candidate likely to unseat President Barack Obama.
My point is simply to keep in mind that as much fun as it is for us in this business to speculate (and man do we love to, it’s like fantasy football with zero control) October the year before an election is statistically meaningless.
This is the ultimate marathon, and Jeb Bush is built to win it with stability all around him. Sure, Rubio’s fundraising efforts have yielded positive results, but no one is built like the ultra-establishment Bush name. As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday: “[Bush super PAC] Right to Rise raised a record-setting $103 million in the first six months of 2015,” and that’s before Bush even announced his candidacy. He’s doing just fine, and his fundraising efforts are only expected to grow.
Jeb Bush right now reminds me of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Trent Dilfer in Super Bowl 35, who basically had such solid infrastructure around him that as long as he didn’t throw eight interceptions against my beloved Giants he was pretty much guaranteed a victory. If Bush remains gaffe-free on a monumental scale, he’s built to last the long haul, and by my suspicions, will take a stage in some capacity on the night of November 8th, 2016.
Very true. Being in the minority is actually a very comfortable place. They can make noise and complain but they really don’t have to do anything. Actually, it makes it easier to have lots of time to attend parties and schmooze (and collect money and prestige).
</s>
And he cannot win without the base.
He said before this all started that his plan was to win without the base.
All summer long, the pundits told us that he was a "circus clown act" and that voters would eventually get tired of him and he'd drop like a rock.
No signs of that happening whatsoever. If Donald Trump ever falls into single digits in any reliable poll going forward, I'll eat my hat.
Jebbie Bush on the other hand is not only in single digits but falling into irrelevancy. He is at 4-6% in some of these polls. There's no way he's ever going to climb out of that tailspin.
Granted that Romney, McCain, etc., were not always leading the polls in the years when they were nominated. But they were NEVER in single digits for months on end.
If anybody can show me where Romney or McCain were at 4% and in sixth place at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 campaigns, I'll eat my hat.
LOL, these pictures are funny. I want to see the one with the Clampetts - Beverly Hilbillies.
“I don’t see how the GOP can avoid the Trump train?”
Funny business at the Convention is how.
It must be hard for idiots like this to live while being totally retarded.
[That looks like Amsterdam in the background?]
I believe it is, what he was doing over there I have NO idea. lol.
Leftists are a special kind of stupid.
No I didn’t see that. Was that in reference to the school shooting?
If Bush remains gaffe-free on a monumental scale, he’s built to last the long haul, and by my suspicions, will take a stage in some capacity on the night of November 8th, 2016.
Why wait? There’s one leaving in 10 minutes.
You KNOW they’re groping when $hit like this is put out to the public.
OHHH you got exclusive here ALRIGHT Monk
I vote for Tooches the kitty for President than Jeb be honest
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.