Hurricane Joaquin - Two very different predicted tracks: Weather Channel vs AccuWeather

Weather Channel & AccuWeather (websites) | Oct 2, 2015 | Me

[ETL]

Just thought it interesting, and potentially very important for those living on the east coast, to point out how different the predicted path for this major hurricane is between these two major weather sources (Weather Channel and AccuWeather), at least as of the moment: Fri, Oct 02, 2015 @ 5:30AM EDT. AccuWeather appears to have it *several hundred miles* more west than does The Weather Channel. Perhaps the predictions are based on different computer models.

The first map below is from AccuWeather. The second, The Weather Channel.

[ETL]

That refrigerator does need a good cleaning. I keep it down the basement and away from the wife.

Why, does she have a problem with her weight?

(Just kidding!!) :)

[tips up]

Predictions are all over the map. Good article on this today.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/10/cant_predict_a_hurricane_but_global_warming_is_a_certainty.html

[CopperTop]

Check their "sponsors". Hehehe. Home improvement or grocery stores on the list? The local weathermen can make a storm system do some serious acrobatics to load up the checkout lines.
All this as the news crew vans desperately whiz by looking for some rotten structure that has succumbed to thunderstorm force winds and toppled. While just off camera the elated property owner smiles and jumps for joy cause now insurance hasta pay for the rotten thing to be replaced. d;^)

[ETL]

“Predictions are all over the map.”

No pun intended? :)

[deport]

[ETL]

Thanks! That’s a great map, depicting 6 different computer models I assume(?). What’s up with NAM?

[ETL]

Re: What’s up with NAM?-me

The map you posted changed! Apparently it self-updates. NAM, whatever that is, or was, had the track marking a 90 deg turn into South Carolina! Now neither NAM or its track is there.

[tips up]

Exactly!

[applpie]

“Working scientists in the field”? Shouldn’t there be a “some” in front of that phrase?

[T-Bone Texan]

Bastardi rocks!

We need more like him.

[deport]

NAM be gone now. Yes the site updates as the models change. Go to the following link,
scroll down and you'll get several windows with different info.

Weather Underground

[ETL]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a posted image change like that.

[ROCKLOBSTER]

Two very different predicted tracks

They gotta be Jokin.

[pgkdan]

I had a connection out of there a couple of weeks ago in the A terminal. Had to watch where you sat for the pigeon poop. There were pigeons all over the place. Not a flock, but more than a few. I felt like I was in some third world train station.

[pgkdan]

Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell.com made the call Thursday morning that the hurricane would miss the east coast. That’s all I need.

Joe Bastardi is a great weatherman, but he'll be the first to tell you that his forecasts are his best educated guesses (and pretty darn good) but they're not prophecy.

[tired&retired]

“At any rate Joe is a good guy”

I’m originally from Central Pennsylvania where Joe got his start and spent most of his career. He always had a good sense of humor, but those long sideburns.... he had them years after they were out of style. Still love him for his outspoken honesty.

[ETL]

9:21AM ET: NAM is back (on your map above) making that sharp 90-deg left turn into the southern US!

[ETL]

9:21AM ET:

NAM is back (on your map above) making that sharp 90-deg left turn into the southern US!

I screen capt it this time.

[deport]

An outlier but every many moons one can be correct.
I’d prefer it to be wrong again.

[deport]

North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM)

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-mesoscale-forecast-system-nam