Posted on 10/01/2015 4:51:02 AM PDT by elhombrelibre
Confused about Putin's motives? Look at Ukraine
Eighteen months ago, when Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, confusion prevailed in the West. Today, as Russia sends troops, armor, and aircraft to Syria, we are once again perplexed. On Monday President Vladimir Putin provided the explanation: Russia’s intervention is aimed to defeat ISIS and reduce the flow of refugees to Europe. A review of the last major Russian intervention, in Ukraine, might help us to evaluate this claim.
The superficial links between the two conflicts are obvious. For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, a ceasefire is holding. This has allowed Moscow to send special forces from Ukraine to Syria. The naval base in Crimea is now used to project Russian power southwards.
The deeper connection is Russian doctrine. Authoritarian leaders are legitimate, while popular resistance is not. President Putin’s claim to oppose Islamic terrorism is true enough. But he also opposes, with equal fervor and greater determination, secular democrats in his own country and in Europe. Russia invaded Ukraine not to halt a “military coup,” as President Putin rather oddly claimed on Monday, but to hinder a democratic movement by military action. In Syria, Russia has helped and presumably will continue to help Assad repress all resistance, not just the Islamicist variety.
(Excerpt) Read more at time.com ...
No muscle? Russia is the third largest oil producing nation on earth, second largest natural gas producer on earth and has the second most powerful military in the world and we are 18 trillion dollars in debt. Russia has already abandoned the petrodollar. That’s what this is all really about.
Russia has smaller GDP than Mexico.
Russia is a nuclear superpower and has a larger GDP than Mexico btw. and they’re the third largest oil producing nation on earth, the second largest natural gas producing nation on earth, and the third largest military on earth. OH, and we now have presidential candidates threatening open war with this nuclear superpower over this business which should give you a clue as to just exactly how much is at stake here.
correction: second most powerful military on earth.
Let’s assume for a minute that Putin is not using the Bible as an outline for his political or military ambitions.
Before oil, or rebuilding the Soviet empire, or attacking Israel, or anything else, Putin NEEDS a warm water port for his Navy.
As for Israel, Putin is more than happy to have his Islamic proxies address that.
What is killing Russia and Iran right now is $45/BBL oil. As long as the Saudis keep pumping, and the economy continues to suck globally, the price is going to remain there or go lower.
To reverse the price trend, they need to invade Saudi Arabia. In the 80’s, the Russians tried to do just this, as they were on the verge of collapse then too. They had the choice of military adventurism or collapse.
Had Reagan not bogged them down in Afghanistan, they’d have made it to SA too.
This time, however, they don’t need to go through Afghanistan. Why do that when they can stabilize Assad, move their forces into eastern Syria and pour through southern Iraq on their way to the northern frontier of SA.
They will get plenty of help form the Persians too. The Iranians will be the ones invading Mecca. No way they allow the Russians to do it.
This idiot at Time magazine thinks people actually care about what is going on in Syria. The ONLY people who care are the ones who need to land and house and invasion force there against the Saudis.
This is why the ‘Death to America’ chanting in Iran has stopped. Now they are chanting, ‘Death to the House of Saud’.
The press is a bunch of checker players commenting on a chess tournament.
i always wondered why Russia wanted Afghanistan!!
I didn’t suspect the majority of things your wrote about.
But I guess a writer should be more prepared than me
Remind me not to play chess with you :)
Between Russia and Iran, they have less than a year to turn around their economies. The Iranians are far worse off than the Russians. Russia can get by on $100/BBL oil. Iran needs $130.
Putin likely sat them down and sold Iran on a Shiite middle east. Iran probably wondered what was going to happen after Mecca went Shiite, and as such, they were going to need a bomb to use against the Russians in case the Russians had the idea they’d simply knock off the Iranians when they were done. Russia obviously conceded, and paved their way to a bomb. Obola happily signed off as ValJars representative, and a Shiite herself (Iranian).
As for Israel, the deal was probably that the Russians would be allowed to take and garrison Medina, putting probably an Army Corps between the Iranians and Israelis. The Russians would also take Riyahd too. The Iranians would use their troops to knock over Mecca. Give them one job.
Our armored division in SA is likely coming home. Soon. Quietly.
Eventually, however, the Israelis will be completely on their own over there. They are trying to deal with Russia because the US has cut them loose.
The invasion has to be done by Jan/Feb latest. The price of oil has to go up, and the whole thing has to start paying for itself in less than a year. Putin’s hocking the wedding china to do this much.
With a different President, we could cook Putin’s goose for good. He’s desperate, and without options. All he’s got is oil. No business in their right mind will put an office in Russia after what happened to the Nuevo rich Russians in the last decade. Iran too.
Between the Turks, the US, and the Saudis, we could put Russia/Iran out of business without firing a shot.
Back then, all the stans above Afghanistan were in the Soviet orbit.
The idea was to come through Pakistan and then use their navy to put people on the beach, supplied by the line they tried to forge and harden in Afghanistan (then Pakistan once they had established it). Pakistan, in the 80s was getting a lot of money and help from the Soviets, as they were not friendly with India.
Afghanistan was the issue. If they could get through it, they reasoned, they could probably take the Sauds.
‘their’ navy being the Soviet navy, not Pakistan’s.
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