[NELSON111]

>>>I think they are giving some deference to the Euro model since it did such a good job with Sandy - but I don’t see how this goes so far east with such a large blocking high to the north. The Euro sees a coastal low developing to kick Joaquin to the east.

Funny...I was just about to type the same thing...lol.

I listened to the conference call the NHC does and they are certainly giving deference to the Euro....but as you pointed out (which is what I was about to post), the EURO is putting some huge coastal low off the SE US....which IMO isn't going to happen. If you split the difference (which is what the ensembles are doing) then the EURO is still east of the GFS but it's much closer to the US. I just dont see two lows (AKA the EURO) off the US. If you look at it and then find a happy medium...then Joaquin is sitting SSE of Hatteras by Sunday.

So in essence the EURO is a slower GFS solution given a longer time spinning near the Bahamas with a hit on the mid atlantic by Sunday evening or so.

[dirtboy]

I think Joaquin is going to suck in what is left of 99L and that will close out the possibility of a coastal low that the Euro is seeing.

[dirtboy]

Distinct eye forming, I think Joaquin approaching Cat 2 intensity: