The current NHC track is a compromise of two possible tracks....and the one that probably has the less likely chance of occurring. It’s either headed to NC/VA or out to sea (AKA the ECMWF). Tricky one to figure out.
I think they are giving some deference to the Euro model since it did such a good job with Sandy - but I don’t see how this goes so far east with such a large blocking high to the north. The Euro sees a coastal low developing to kick Joaquin to the east.